Economic indicator flat for October

Brad Foss

Thursday, Nov. 21, 2002 | 9:47 a.m.

NEW YORK -- A gauge of U.S. economic activity was flat in October after four straight months of declines.

The New York-based Conference Board today reported its Index of Leading Economic Indicators was unchanged at 111.4, after falling a revised 0.4 percent in September. Analysts had expected an October decline of 0.1 percent.

A better employment picture neutralized dour consumer attitudes, the conference board said.

The index measures where the overall U.S. economy is headed in the next three to six months. It stood at 100 in 1996, its base year.

Six of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index rose in October, including building permits and manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials, the Conference Board said. Negative contributors were the index of consumer expectations and average weekly manufacturing hours.

"Only consumption has consistently fueled the recovery through the first ten months of this year," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein, adding that the leading indicators "are not pointing toward a more positive outlook."

The news helped keep stocks in positive territory, sending the Dow Jones industrial average up 88 points to 8,711 in morning trading. The Nasdaq composite index advanced 25 to 1,444.

The Conference Board's coincident index, which measures current economic activity, was also steady in October at 115.1. The index of lagging indicators, which reflects changes that have already occurred, remained steady last month at 100.0.