Columnist Dean Juipe: Underdogs still feasting at NFL table

Dean Juipe

Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2002 | 9:03 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

Ten games into the National Football League season and most fans still can't make heads or tails of the league. The result: When it comes to picking winners, you might as well flip a coin.

Or simply go with the underdogs.

That very topic came up Monday night at the swank Turnberry luxury condominiums, where noted professional gambler Lem Banker was holding court before an audience of residents and out-of-place media types.

Banker had the Chicago Bears and 10 points -- he was looking hard for 11 offshore, but with no luck -- in the featured game with the St. Louis Rams, and he finished on the right side when the Rams won 21-16 but failed to cover.

That was a typical result, given the season's general trend as well as this weekend's final scores. Of the 14 games played, four favorites (Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Green Bay and San Francisco) outright lost; four more favorites (St. Louis, Kansas City, Jacksonville and the New York Giants) won but didn't cover; and the other eight favorites (Miami, Oakland, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Denver and the New York Jets) won and covered.

The carnage has been greater in previous weeks, yet it was substantial enough.

"It takes a lot of guts to bet on some of these bad teams, but if you just close your eyes and bet the underdogs all season I don't think you'll lose any money," Banker proclaimed, and an acquaintance supported that notion by saying underdogs have won (for their bettors) 52 percent of the time since 1980.

Of course Banker issued all the right warnings, such as limiting your bets to what you can still describe as "fun" and pointing out the inherent house advantage. And to substantiate his position, he did a little math: If a person bets $1,000 per game on 20 games a week (adding college games or NFL over/unders to the mix) for 20 weeks and wins at a healthy 58 percent clip, he's looking at a profit of $47,700; but if that same bettor loses at 58 percent, he'll be out a less-than-equitable $87,700.

In other words, the books have a built-in safety device that continually feeds their corporate kitty.

But you already knew that.

What you wish you knew is something as simple as which teams are likely to reach the Super Bowl. After all, 10 games into the season something like this ought to be coming clear.

It's not, of course, as proven by Green Bay losing to Minnesota on Sunday after a week of national-magazine and talk-show accolades. The Packers' bandwagon was bulging -- and not just with bratwurst -- prior to meeting the Vikes, but it has since toppled after a game in which Brett Favre's three interceptions had the quarterback looking more like Nanette Fabray than the upcoming MVP.

"There might yet be a couple of sleepers," Banker said in a Super Bowl forecast that was unintentionally vague. Pressed further, he went with Oakland or Miami vs. Green Bay or Tampa Bay, with Philadelphia downgraded after losing quarterback Donovan McNabb for the season.

"The ball isn't round," Banker complained, pointing out the difficulty in sizing up these games and the element of luck that inevitably comes into play.

But you knew that, too.