Columnist Erin Neff: Democrats must bond for Reid to prevail in 2004

Erin Neff

Friday, Nov. 15, 2002 | 5:46 a.m.

Erin Neff covers politics for the Sun. She can be reached at (702) 259-4062, or by e-mail at erin@lasvegassun.com.

HE WASN'T on the ballot Nov. 5, but Harry Reid suffered the most significant defeat in Nevada, a blow nationally, and possibly, harm to his own re-election in 2004.

Two weeks ago Reid was still Nevada's political hero, the soft-spoken Searchlight native who carried a huge stick for the state as assistant Senate majority leader.

Then came Election Day, and a colossal shift in momentum.

Democrats lost the U.S. Senate -- relegating them to minority party status once again -- and, in the state, suffered double-digit defeat in all of the key races Reid targeted for Democrats he put on the ballot.

Reid has never won elections handily, eking out victory over John Ensign by just 428 votes in his most recent re-election campaign. When Republicans couple that fact with the reality of Nov. 5., Reid becomes a definite target ripe for the picking when he's up in 2004.

As the heart and soul of the state's Democratic Party, he's also GOP public enemy number one. And unless Reid does something to turn the momentum, he'll be just as vulnerable to the rising Republicans in two years as his candidates were two weeks ago.

Republicans are still bitter about the 1998 race.

Bolstered by this year's sweep of Reid's candidates for statewide offices, gains in the Assembly and increased margin in the state Senate, Republicans are hoping the momentum carries forward to the ballot box.

U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., has eyed the Senate before, and with enough talking from his party to drown out his wife Dawn's wish that he run for governor in a few years, Gibbons might just take on Reid.

Reid is already fully focused on his re-election, his staff planning a strategy session later this week to figure out how to turn the momentum their way.

But Reid is a master of creating his own momentum.

It was he, you recall, who enticed Vermont Sen. James Jeffords to leave the Republican Party, become an Independent and vote with the Democrats. That's how Reid went from minority to majority whip overnight.

That's why some Nevadans held out hope earlier this year that Reid would somehow be able to block Yucca Mountain. When the senator calls in favors, they thought, Nevada will have enough votes.

But even Reid knew the momentum was stacked against him then. It's hard to block something 43 states and a popular president are pushing.

Reid used the Yucca Mountain defeat to blast the administration, giving the Democrats an issue to raise with the popular post-Sept. 11 president. Reid has continually turned defeats into opportunities.

After his one-time foe Ensign won election to the Senate in 2000, Reid took the state's new senator, who once gave him fits on the campaign trail, under his wing.

Their bipartisan approach to Nevada issues turned into a collegial relationship that developed into a friendship, by all accounts.

But it also helped soften any animosity Ensign and others had built up against Reid during the 1998 race.

And it gave Republicans within Nevada fewer opportunities to condemn Reid, and thus, by proxy, less chance to mount a campaign against him in '04.

But that was before the most recent election. And a little success from the party that's learned to lasso President Bush's popularity, gives Republicans hope they can rope another Senate seat.

Reid knows how dangerous an energized opponent is.

That's why he had heart-to-heart talks with state Democratic leaders within hours of the Election Day debacle.

Known for terse responses and quick chats, Reid actually spent 45 minutes to an hour with some leaders.

What went wrong? What needs to change? How can I help?

Reid knows that as the party's de facto leader in Nevada, helping raise money, opening doors and fielding candidates, he shoulders some of the blame. So when he asks what Democrats need to rebuild, he's honestly trying to fix the organization.

But he's also squarely fixed on how to improve his chances in two years.

That is, after all, Reid's specialty and the whole reason some Democratic candidates even ran this year. Former Las Vegas Mayor Jan Laverty Jones may have lost to Kenny Guinn for governor in 1998, but she also got enough Democrats to the polls to give Reid his victory over Ensign.

But Reid won't have a Democratic attorney general or lieutenant governor to help him get out the vote in two years.

He's going to have to fix the party himself, for his own good.