Different directions: Guinn, party may not be on same path for solving state deficit

Erin Neff

Friday, Nov. 8, 2002 | 3:43 a.m.

WEEKEND EDITION: Nov. 10, 2002

Gov. Kenny Guinn, whose coattails and money helped dozens of Republicans sweep to victory last week, may end up finding the strongest support from the party he helped trounce.

Despite winning re-election with 68 percent of the vote and garnering what many called a mandate, Guinn may have a short-lived honeymoon because he and many in his party have philosophical differences over solving the state deficit.

"The governor and his party may not be going in the same direction," said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno.

Many Republicans won't support new taxes, including some in the Legislature who campaigned against taxes despite the state deficit, currently $350 million. The deficit could actually help Nevada Democrats rebound from their worst performance in decades.

Although Guinn won big and is popular, many lawmakers and political observers see that as support for his leadership, not a mandate on new taxes. And Guinn's coattails included conservative members of his party who don't see new taxes as the answer.

A former Democrat and current social moderate, Guinn spent much of the campaign priming the pump for a tax increase. While he didn't comment until very late on specific tax proposals, he repeatedly said that he has cut as much money from state government as is possible.

And on election night he worked the Caesars Palace party as both victor and salesman.

"I have done everything I can do already," Guinn said as he walked poolside shaking hands with party faithful and Assembly winners. "We've instituted flat budgeting, and we've reviewed all expenses for duplication and waste.

"Along comes 9-11 and it sets us back and now we need to do something to raise additional revenues."

But many in his party don't like to hear that talk.

"The people I talked to on the campaign didn't want to hear talk of raising taxes," said Assemblyman-elect Walter Andonov, a Republican from Henderson. "They are looking for fiscal conservatives."

Northern Nevada Assemblyman Don Gustavson, R-Sun Valley, slipped past Democrat Debbie Smith by 31 votes in a northern Democratic district Tuesday by pledging no new taxes.

And with the four seats Republicans gained in the Assembly, Gustavson said his 19-member caucus will be in a better position to stop new taxes. It takes two-thirds of the 42-member Assembly to pass a tax increase.

"Before when we only had 15, we needed every one of us to block something needing a two-thirds majority," Gustavson said. "Now it will be easier."

State Democratic Party Chairman Terry Care said he envisions a tough session for Guinn because he does not think last week's election shows any kind of mandate to raise taxes.

"I can definitely foresee trouble," Care said. "Not only is it two-thirds to pass a tax, but all it takes is one-third plus one to kill it."

And the voters sent a mixed message on taxes.

In Clark County, the Henderson library tax initiative and a proposal to raise taxes for a trust fund to help the homeless both failed. However, an advisory question that asks the Legislature to approve $2.7 billion worth taxes for transportation projects in the county and a state question that would raise up to $200 million for environmental conservation programs both passed.

Voters also killed two proposed tax exemptions -- one for race car engines and another for farm equipment.

"There's no mandate for any kind of taxation, either way," Care said.

Assembly Majority Leader Richard Perkins, D-Henderson, called the Republican sweep of last week a "perfect storm." But he also thinks his party is in a good position to rebound in the upcoming legislative session.

"There was a confluence of so many things, a perfect storm, that hit us," Perkins said. "Medical malpractice and Question 2 energized the right, there was a national conservative wave that started on the East Coast and the Republicans had better candidates statewide.

"But we're going to be seen working much more collegially with the governor than the Republicans will."

During the 2001 session when Guinn couldn't get something passed through the Assembly minority, Perkins said he was called on by the governor to push it through the Democratic side of the aisle.

"He's come to me for votes before, and I think he may be doing the same thing next session," Perkins said.

Republican leaders, like state GOP Chairman Bob Seale and Clark County GOP Chairman Steve Wark, said they don't think Guinn will have problems within the party.

"I don't think the governor is out of step at all with what the vast majority of Nevada and Republicans think," Wark said. "What he's doing is just letting everyone know that everything's on the table with taxes and everything will be discussed."

Seale said that while there are "conservative folks out there who will balk" at Guinn's proposals, "they are going to be forced to see the reality of the situation."

"The governor has done a whole lot to get rid of waste," Seale said. "He's at the point where other things need to be tried to increase revenue."

Political strategist Billy Vassiliadis said that since taxes are never an easy sell, Guinn faces a difficult political task.

Vassiliadis said the stage is already set. Guinn has instituted budget controls, both business and gaming said they would agree to increased taxes of some sort to increase revenue and educators have been promised more money.

"It's going to take the governor and all of those groups and the 63 legislators to get anything done," Vassiliadis said.

Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, said she thinks Guinn will have the most trouble within his own caucus.

"We have a real opportunity to be a force," Titus said.

Democrats said last week's GOP sweep is reminiscent of 1994, when Republicans swept into office in Congress and in the Nevada Legislature. Both Nevada and the nation shifted to the right, but Democrats were able to make gains shortly thereafter.

"The 1994 election came back to haunt them, and I think that could happen again," Titus said.

Newly elected Republican state senators Barbara Cegavske, Warren Hardy, Dennis Nolan and Sandra Tiffany all campaigned to some degree against new taxes. Nolan said he was against a gross receipts business tax. Cegavske, Hardy and Tiffany said they had not seen justification warranting new taxes.

"Knowing the fresh faces in the Senate as I do, the governor's going to have a tough time," Care, also a state senator from Las Vegas, said.

Teachers' unions supported and endorsed Guinn for re-election, in part, because he promised to raise the per-pupil student spending to the national average.

"People have made commitments," Care said. "The teachers and the educators deserve it."

Assemblyman Bob Beers, R-Las Vegas, said he is not worried about Guinn, a former president of UNLV and a former superintendent of Clark County School District, losing his legacy in education.

"The election showed that there was tolerance for increasing taxes if there was a good solid reason," Beers said, referring to the conservation and transportation initiatives. "I don't think that any Nevadan is going to measure the governor's legacy by the source of the money to fund the state's programs and education."

Ted Jelen, chairman of the political science department at UNLV, said he did not think last week's elections showed any leaning to the right.

"I would deny the premise that there's a conservative trend," Jelen said, pointing to a slate of weak Democratic candidates and voter support for some ballot questions that weren't conservative.

Herzik said that he thought Guinn could claim a mandate because he got 68 percent of the vote. But Herzik said he also sees a conservative shift in state government that could hurt the governor's efforts.

"Other Republicans are not completely on the Guinn tax train," said Herzik, a registered Republican. "You've got a louder Republican voice and a more conservative voice now in the Assembly and that could be a problem."

Assembly Majority Leader Barbara Buckley, D-Las Vegas, agreed.

"They will have a lot to prove," said Buckley said. "Kenny Guinn is going to have a very tough legislative session. Kenny Guinn has a social conscience and he may have a harder time with the more conservative members of his party."

Lyndsey Jydstrup, director of the Democratic Legislative Caucus, said she expects the 2003 session, which begins in February, to be very difficult for Guinn and the Republicans.

"I expect us to have a very good election two years from now," Jydstrup said.

Herzik said Republicans should also be wary of their big wins last week given the crises facing the state.

He warns: "Be careful what you ask for. You might get it."

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