Columnist Jon Ralston: Party could’ve been a contender

Friday, Nov. 8, 2002 | 3:41 a.m.

A guy in the governor's mansion who wants to fund education and social services. That Hispanic rising star is now a front-runner for governor or U.S. Senate. And a U.S. senator is riding high after helping fund lower-ticket candidates.

Oh, those are Republicans? My mistake.

Or should I say, the Democrats' mistake. Make that mistakes.

They can wail about the national GOP tide if they wish. But the major contests were not even close -- the constitutional offices and the new congressional seat were decided by double digits. Amid the fingerpointing and recriminations, the Democrats were crushed in Nevada this year because they made critical mistakes before filing ever ended and then compounded those errors with strategic blunders during the campaign.

Many partisans are laying responsibility at the top, Democratic Anointer-in-Chief Harry Reid, who had the most to gain and now has the most to lose since his re-election cycle began the moment Campaign '02 ended. ("Hello, Congressman Jim Gibbons? The president is on the line. He wants to talk to you about the 2004 Senate race ...")

Too many Democrats feel that Reid, who went from Senate majority to minority whip, was not concerned so much with what was best for the party, but what was best for his re-election. He selfishly wanted Dario Herrera to become a congressman, the theory goes, so Herrera would drive Hispanics to the polls in '04.

Reid also will have to wear the smashing loss of attorney general candidate John Hunt and the elevation of a Republican Hispanic, Brian Sandoval, especially since the senator leant two of his staffers to the Hunt campaign. Reid also signed off on the last-minute Erin Kenny for lieutenant governor/GOP state Sen. Mark James for her County Commission seat stunt, which resulted only in a Republican securing a powerful local seat that could easily have been taken by one of several eager Democrats. (If James doesn't switch parties, Reid will really look foolish.)

Some of this is not fair. Herrera was fatally flawed and no one viable wanted to run for governor or attorney general. And those conspiracy theorists who think all Reid cared about was electing his son, Rory, to Herrera's County Commission seat, even if it meant sacrificing Herrera, are just loony. Family may be thicker than politics, but does anyone think Reid the Elder wanted a Republican in that new congressional seat?

Now, though, Reid reaps the consequences -- short- and long-term. No Democrat has a statewide base, and any GOP constitutional officeholder has a better springboard than, say, an Assembly speaker, a state Senate minority leader or a Henderson mayor. And no statewide Democrats means GOP Sen. John Ensign, who gained chits by helping victorious Republicans, probably will not have as strong an opponent come '06.

Hindsight, which is one of my specialties, may be 20-20, but a clear-eyed view shows the Democrats made three critical mistakes:

Mistake No. 1 -- Allowing Herrera to be the standard-bearer. After the springtime revelations of Herrera's Housing Authority contract and the seemingly unending adverse publicity, some Democrats told Reid to pull the plug. But Reid stuck by Herrera, either out of a sincere belief in the man or a blinding desire to get him elected so the senator could be helped in '04. Then Herrera's campaign exacerbated the mistake by allowing those GOP ads to run unanswered, allowing his negatives to soar to fatal heights. Herrera's refusal to show any contrition or give back the contract money sealed his fate.

Mistake No. 2 -- Giving Guinn a pass. Allowing the governor essentially to go unchallenged was a catastrophic error that dispirited many Democrats. Sure, Guinn didn't get too involved in other races, but that's small consolation now. As I suggested months ago, state Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus should have run -- if she had modulated her stridency, she could have credibly taken on Guinn, engaged the media and made a decent showing.

Mistake No. 3 -- Having no coherent message. The party had no central rallying point. Even if it were a demagogic, populist hot button such as Nevada Power hatred, at least they would have had something. Instead, they had nothing, which is, not coincidentally, what they are left holding after Election Day.

Would not making those mistakes have made a difference? I think so. At the very least, the races might have been more competitive and the losses in the Assembly probably less dramatic.

There is more bad news, too -- the failure to get enough Hispanics involved and a labor grass-roots effort that became irrelevant -- moving turnout a few points on Election Day doesn't matter if the Republicans have double-digit leads.

Reid said last week that he has no regrets, that a year ago the party had zero candidates and that he at least made the Republicans fight for what they won. But if you recruit lightweights to take on heavyweights, and don't teach them the basics of attacking and defending, generally what happens is what occurred last Tuesday: a knockout.

Predictions post-mortem: I tasted humble pie in the primary, and I did not like the flavor. Now, though, I have swallowed the wonderful taste of near-perfection -- and it agrees with me. I missed no races, hit some close to dead-on in margins and was off by only two in the final Assembly matrix. How sweet it is.