Monday, Nov. 4, 2002 | 9:48 a.m.
WASHINGTON -- Candidates in a handful of hard-fought races are looking to an unlikely group of voters -- Indians -- to cast the votes that could decide who wins and loses Tuesday.
The competition for the Indian vote isn't as fierce and hasn't received as much attention as the national parties' fight for the support of the Hispanic population.
But for Indians, who in generations of elections have been marginalized, either because of cultural barriers or geographic isolation, it provides an opportunity to assert their role in the electoral process and potentially make their voice heard in government.
"It doesn't make any difference if it's a Republican or Democratic swing," said Jacqueline Johnson, executive director of the National Congress of American Indians, the nation's largest Indian advocacy organization. "Now we're voting and we have a population base that makes a difference. Our issues need to be listened to and we're paying attention to who's paying attention to us."
Nationwide, Indians make up just 1.5 percent of the population, according to 2000 Census figures. But they tend to be clustered in groups, often on or near reservations, making their numbers more important in particular districts.
"What we've learned in the past is you don't have to have huge numbers to be important," said David Magleby, a political science professor at Brigham Young University in Utah, who is leading a study on the 2002 Indian vote. "The African-American community often looks at the threshold of about 5 percent, and in a close race if you can show substantial motivation, you can make a difference."
By that standard, the Indian vote could come into play in toss-up races in South Dakota, Arizona, New Mexico and potentially Oklahoma. And with Democrats clinging to a single-seat edge in the Senate and needing seven seats to win control of the House, every race has become a tug-o'-war.
Nowhere are the stakes higher than in South Dakota, where Democrats trying to re-elect Sen. Tim Johnson against Republican Rep. John Thune are seeking out Indian voters, who make up 6 percent of the state's voting-age population.
The state's governor's race and House seat also hang in the balance.
In northeastern Arizona, Indians make up nearly one in five voting-age residents in a sprawling district encompassing several Indian reservations.
Already, the Democratic House candidate, businessman George Cordova, has shown the importance of the Indian vote, working hard to organize Indian communities and stunning two heavy favorites -- former Clinton aide Fred DuVal and Steve Udall, a member of the West's most prominent political family -- in the Democratic primary.
Now Cordova and Republican Rick Renzi are both driving dusty roads and meeting with tribal leaders, attending town meetings and visiting local gathering places on the reservations. Cordova has been endorsed by most of the Navajo chapters, said Cordova spokeswoman Cindy Jimenez.
Close races in New Mexico's 2nd District between Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat John Arthur Smith and in Oklahoma's 4th District between former state Sens. Tom Cole and Darryl Roberts could be swung by the 5 percent of Indian voters in each district.
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