Columnist Erin Neff: Democrats should be plotting for election 2006 right now

Erin Neff

Friday, May 31, 2002 | 4:58 a.m.

YOU HAVE TO search a little bit to find a 2006 calendar and mark the date Nov. 7.

But if Democrats have any hope of wresting back the governor's mansion from GOP hands, they had better start working immediately with that date 1,620 days from now in the front of their minds.

Sure the party has a few races this year it can make a passing glance at -- lieutenant governor, attorney general and Congressional District 3. But Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn enjoys an easy re-election bid this year thanks to the strategy devised years prior to his first run.

Nevada politics revolve so heavily around not the Democrats or Republicans -- but the Gaming Party -- that the anointment of candidates comes years, not months, in advance. That's in part due to Guinn, who created the model of the modern Nevada campaign.

Guinn started getting commitments for his 1998 gubernatorial bid in 1996. And, immediately after his election, his campaign team went to work on how to win re-election four years hence.

Democratic State Party Chairman Terry Care said he's familiar with the so-called anointment process, and while he doesn't care for it, admits his party will have to play by the new rules of Nevada's political game to succeed.

"Kenny Guinn's election is certainly something we can learn from," Care said.

The lesson, as told by Guinn's campaign chairman Pete Ernaut, involves setting early goals and going after them pronto.

For Guinn's current re-election bid Ernaut outlined a plan years ago -- the governor would need $3 million, and he would also need to aggressively pursue the endorsements from any organization that failed to back him in his initial run.

By late 2001 it was clear that nobody -- not even the Democrats' stated best candidate, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman -- had a chance against Guinn, who already had more than $2 million in the bank and unprecedented labor support.

The focus may still be on Election Day 2002, but Democrats had better have their chosen candidate -- or at least a narrowed field -- ready to kiss up to the gamers and vacuum up the cash by the time the votes are tallied this November.

Don't think for a moment that would-be candidates are waiting idly as so many Democrats did over the past 18 months as Guinn grew stronger.

Candidates are now positioning for a race in which Yucca Mountain may already be decided in the courts.

Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins continues to quietly raise his stature, toiling for the Democratic Party and mixing at fund-raisers like the one held Wednesday by former Gov. Bob Miller for Perkins' re-election bid.

Since Perkins doesn't have any competition this year, it's clear events like that are aimed more at garnering the first wave of future commitments for a gubernatorial run.

But Perkins won't be alone in the Democratic primary four years from now. Clark County Commissioner Erin Kenny will be there (provided she wins the lieutenant governor's race) and there's a great possibility that they will also face Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson (if he hasn't already become a Republican by then.)

Unfortunately for them, there's also that party across the aisle that not only can learn from Guinn's example, but helped make it the current rule.

Republican '06 contenders are also lining up -- led by U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons. Yes, the congressman. If House Republicans don't hold the majority after this year's elections, Gibbons may very well decide to make a run for governor.

And, since he's someone Ernaut considers a top-tier candidate, watch out.

Republicans could also see former state Sen. Mark James on the ballot, because there's little chance of him switching to the Democratic Party. And many in the party are already hoisting Attorney General candidate Brian Sandoval into the '06 mix.

But it's more likely that Secretary of State Dean Heller would make a bid for the mansion than would Sandoval, who is reportedly so hooked on his current run, that he would seek a second term if voters give him a first one.

Certainly a lot can happen in the next four years but you can be certain that Election 2006 is about to begin.