Columnist Jon Ralston: No big surprises at filing’s end

Friday, May 24, 2002 | 4:04 a.m.

Oh, that Erin Kenny-Mark James scheme was a thing of beauty -- if you are merely a political observer. And it is a monument to opportunistic Machiavellianism -- if you are just about anyone in politics except Mark James or Erin Kenny.

But other than the spectacle of a Democratic county commissioner anointed as the party's standard-bearer (the party folks pretend Joe Neal doesn't exist), even as she gives away her seat to a Republican (in name only), the end of filing also marks the end of many races, including the state's most important.

Suspense actually was long ago leached out of the governor's race -- no one could have defeated Gov. Kenny Guinn this year barring a cataclysm. Fact is that state Sen. Joe Neal will not draw significantly fewer votes than would have Mayor Oscar Goodman or state Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus. Actually, Neal is the perfect foil for Guinn because of his knowledge of state issues, his mastery of populist rhetoric (gaming taxes, anyone?) and his Southern Nevada residency.

Neal actually only has one tiny problem: He can't raise a dime. Well, maybe a dime. But not much more -- and so it will be hard for him to get Guinn to engage.

Add in the fact that he is a flawed messenger because of the Yucca Mountain stuff, his endorsement of GOP congressional hopeful Lynette Boggs McDonald, his tendency to be a loose blunderbuss and the latent racism from Las Vegas to Reno and all points in between -- and the powers that anoint can start those inauguration plans early.

Now, though, Kenny Guinn has a big decision: Will he let the governor be taken off the governor? Guinn has expressed strong feelings in private on the most pressing state issues -- the tax structure, education funding, medical malpractice, power rates.

But it's time for him to shuck the muzzle his advisers have wheedled him into wearing so as not to damage his re-election chances, which have always been assured. It's time for him to use that $3 million to educate the public on these issues so he can create momentum for real, substantive action in Session '03. It's time for the politician who became governor after a couple of decades of being Mr. Front Man for various worthy causes to return to his best role -- leader.

Start talking, governor. Speak up. We can't hear the real you.

As for the Kenny-James surprise nuptials, they may not kiss and tell, but this was love at first political opportunity. Kenny's business cards now are emblazoned with "Lt. Gov. in '02, Gov. in '06," and James' cards now declare, "Commission in '02, Whatever Looks Good in '04 or '06."

This is quite the pair. And they have created quite the fascinating dynamic in two races.

Kenny has raised somewhere close to seven figures, but has significantly less on hand. And while she will hemorrhage from casinos asking for their contributions back, Kenny still will have a large lead over Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt, who needs a little help from The Muzzled One and some anti-Kenny folks to catch up.

Kenny is as tough and as unpredictable as they come. She will have labor, which may not be as distracted as strike fears wane. And she has more energy than most 6-year-olds, is able to juggle kids, legal studies, commission duties and, now, is running for statewide office. She has her share of negatives -- her loony proposals, her alienation of some key political players. But her positives -- her Al Davis-like zeal to win, her resourcefulness -- may outweigh those.

The key here is whether Guinn and others will go all-out for Hunt, who is likable but not well-known and who Kenny hopes to portray as opting for feel-good proposals over substantive initiatives.

As for James, he has to quickly create a campaign organization and figure out how to show a GOP primary electorate that he really is a Republican and doesn't plan to switch parties. Judging by her willingness to raise irrelevancies such as the sodomy bill, PR woman Esther Quisenberry means to be especially vicious to show James as a false Republican.

James should be able to tap into his legislative donor list and no doubt Kenny has pledged to help him raise money, too. Maybe she could persuade those casino companies asking for their money back to sign the checks over to James -- after all, they liked him just fine in Carson City.

All of this, of course, obscures the point that you have a person serving on a very powerful board -- the County Commission -- running for a sinecure because what she really wants to do is run for governor. And you have a guy who was retiring from politics because he said his kids had been around it enough, and who had once mused about everything from Capitol Hill to attorney general to the governor's mansion, deciding to stay in the game so he can have a title and a possible steppingstone later to one of those higher offices.

See how much things really change in politics? Not much.