Who’ll control Legislature? Leaders at odds

Erin Neff

Wednesday, May 22, 2002 | 9:53 a.m.

Each party is hyping the end of the election filing period as the beginning to coming changes in the state's political landscape.

Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, touts a possible Democratic takeover of the Senate. Republicans are energized by what they call the best year to pick up seats in the Democrat-controlled Assembly.

The truth will probably fall somewhere in between come November, but for now, the hype is a way to kick off the campaign season in earnest.

"I'd like to see it 12 to 9 like it is now, only with Democrats in control," Titus said of the 21-seat Senate. "But we can absolutely take an 11-to-10 majority."

Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, is nonplussed by her remarks as he handicaps the same races.

"That's something I've heard every two years for the past two decades," Raggio said of the takeover threat. "I don't think that's likely this time either."

In addition to the legislative seats, voters will decide who should fill the state's six constitutional offices. But already Gov. Kenny Guinn and Secretary of State Dean Heller -- both Republicans -- appear to be locks for re-election.

Even if Democrats are able to take out one of the other Republicans -- Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt, Controller Kathy Augustine and attorney general candidate Brian Sandoval -- Republicans could maintain five of the six offices.

"You always have to give the edge to the incumbent in a statewide race," said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "They have already won a statewide race."

In the state Senate, several open seats are up for grabs, and Democrats think they can steal one Northern Nevada district.

In Clark County, Senate District 8 was vacated by Republican Mark James, and now has two Republicans and two Democrats looking to replace him.

Raggio said he thinks Assemblywoman Barbara Cegavske, R-Las Vegas, will win. Titus thinks Cegavske might lose to the more conservative Thom Christensen in the primary, setting up Democrat Kristen Hansen to win.

District 9, a seat vacated by Republican Bill O'Donnell, could also provide a contentious Republican primary, opening up Democrat Terry Lamuraglia to win that seat, Titus said.

Raggio said it will be very difficult to defeat former gaming lobbyist Richard Bunker, a Republican. But Bunker is also Raggio's third choice for the race after Republicans Bill Brady and Brian Scroggins both dropped out. Assemblyman Dennis Nolan, R-Las Vegas, who has been in the race since O'Donnell announced he was quitting, will be Bunker's primary opponent.

In Northern Nevada, Titus said she likes Joe Carter's chances of unseating incumbent Republican Sen. Maurice Washington. Raggio notes that the district has a Republican voter edge and should be safe.

Raggio predicts a 12-to-9 or 13-to-8 Republican majority after Election Day.

In the Assembly, Democrats need to pick up one seat to have a veto-proof majority. But the departure of several incumbents in Republican-leaning districts could hurt their current 27-15 edge.

Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins, D-Henderson, envisions a best-case scenario of 30 Democratic seats and a worse case of 25 seats.

"It think it will stay pretty close to where it's at," he said.

Assembly Minority Leader Lynn Hettrick, R-Gardnerville, notes that Republicans have fielded candidates in all but two of the Southern Nevada districts, and can possibly pick up three seats elsewhere thanks to the retirement of Bonnie Parnell, D-Carson City; Roy Neighbors, D-Tonopah; and Joe Dini, D-Yerington.