Guinn may have money to burn on GOP

Erin Neff

Wednesday, May 22, 2002 | 10:48 a.m.

Gov. Kenny Guinn is facing 16 opponents in his re-election bid, but his $2.3 million warchest won't be needed much to deflect criticism or defend himself against credible foes.

Instead, political observers note that Guinn's real race this fall will be to see how successfully he can influence votes for fellow Republicans down the ticket.

The prospect for Democrats is possibly bleaker because of the inability to mount a serious challenge to a popular, and moderate, incumbent.

"He's strong at the top of the ticket, and the Republicans are strong throughout," said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "With a lack of Democrats at the top of the ticket, voters won't show up and Guinn could use some of his money and time to help the Republicans."

Guinn has already pledged support for his five party comrades running for constitutional offices, joining attorney general candidate Brian Sandoval at his campaign kick-off last week and stumping for others during last weekend's state GOP convention.

Mike Slanker, a consultant working for Republican congressional hopeful Jon Porter's campaign, said Guinn has already done the GOP huge favors by keeping credible opponents from his race.

"He's a leader, not just of Republicans, but of the state, who's carrying 70 percent approval," Slanker said. "He's popular and has sewn up all of the union support.

"With that kind of weight behind Jon Porter or Brian Sandoval or (Lt. Gov.) Lorraine Hunt, it's going to be very beneficial."

Pete Ernaut, Guinn's campaign chairman, said the governor will assist "Victory 2002" efforts by state Republicans.

Ernaut did not outwardly suggest that Guinn's last-minute Democratic challenger Joe Neal -- a state Senator from North Las Vegas -- would be easy to beat, but he did say that Democrats' own lukewarm reception for Neal shows that Guinn won't have to campaign too hard for himself.

"Even if we just go through the motions of a campaign, it can get expensive," Ernaut said.

But he admitted, that running a minimal campaign, reserving cash for governor's office expenses and donating significant amounts to scholarship funds or charity, will still leave $500,000 to $1 million left in Guinn's re-election coffers.

"It's always a concern," state Democratic Party Chairman Terry Care said of Guinn's potential top of the ticket influence. "He could inject himself into other races."

But Care notes that legislative races in particular, are won by candidates who campaign harder in the district -- going door-to-door and greeting residents.

"The Congressional District 3 race is going to go to the candidate who goes out and tries the hardest," Care added, discounting Guinn's potential influence in Porter's race against Democrat Dario Herrera.

Lindsey Jydstrup, who as head of the Democratic Legislative Caucus recruits candidates to run for the Assembly and Senate, said she has not seen "coattail effects" in past legislative races.

In 1994, she notes, Gov. Bob Miller won re-election, but his fellow Democrats running for the Legislature had a bad year.

But Jydstrup is concerned about the influence Guinn's money could have on the races.

Federal law prohibits direct individual campaign donations of more than $2,000 to congressional candidates. State law caps individual donations at $10,000 for state and local races.

But there is no limit to how many "Vote Republican" ads Guinn can buy or mailers he can purchase for other candidates.

In California, Gov. Gray Davis dumped several million dollars into GOP primary gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon's campaign ads because Davis wanted to face the more conservative Simon in the general election -- a wish that voters granted.

Slanker said the lack of a big-name Democratic challenger to Guinn will also play a role in this fall's elections.

"Why would Joe Democrat show up at the polls?" Slanker asked rhetorically.

Democrats counter that Clark County Commissioner Erin Kenny's last-minute decision to run for lieutenant governor could counter Guinn's influence in other races.

"Kenny Guinn does not want to look across the hall at Erin Kenny," Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, said.

Kenny will likely have $1 million for the lieutenant governor's race, and the ability to outspend Hunt possibly 8-to-1 or more.

Ernaut said Guinn is already looking for a legacy to hang his two terms on -- possibly the Millennium Scholarship or Senior Rx programs -- by which future politicians will remember him.

Some of the current GOP candidates are hoping part of his legacy will be about how much he influenced the elections of 2002.