Chasing Emblem

Ralph Siraco

Friday, May 17, 2002 | 10:54 a.m.

There is an adage that goes, "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me."

That seems to be the strategy surrounding the middle jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown. When War Emblem rolled to the lead and kept on going after setting civil fractions in the Kentucky Derby a fortnight ago, the stage was set for a brisk renewal of Saturday's Preakness Stakes.

Another saying may also apply: "The cat is out of the bag."

Trainer Bob Baffert knows that if his War Emblem is to reach the June 8 Belmont Stakes with a chance to be the sport's 12th Triple Crown winner, he will have to accomplish the 1 3/16 mile journey at Pimlico Race Course under siege all the way.

This time they'll be gunning for him.

During a recent national telephone interview, Baffert referred to War Emblem's easy jaunt at Churchill Downs and the likelihood of another easy lead in the Preakness as "not going to happen."

The three-time Preakness winning trainer is aware that everybody now knows how good his horse is. Those who followed him in the Louisville procession certainly know it. There are some new shooters waiting as well, some with suicidal early speed.

The silver-haired conditioner now ponders the Preakness question for his Derby winner. "The thing is now, you have to decide. If I go with him, who's going to be around at the end?" Baffert said.

There is no doubt that some are going to go with him. But, will he go with them?

Just before stepping onto a plane for his Baltimore engagement, War Emblem worked a pedestrian 1:03:1 for five furlongs over a fast track at Churchill Downs Tuesday morning. It was a very uncharacteristic move for any Baffert pupil, let alone the one who had enough gas to take a Derby field all the way. So what gives?

After the lung-opener, Baffert told an anxious media "I don't think we can change his style, but I do want him as relaxed as we can get him."

While Baffert tries to convince his competition that he doesn't want to change War Emblem's style, D. Wayne Lukas, who sends Derby runner-up Proud Citizen in search of a turnabout, said he won't try to change his horse, either.

But Lukas said Proud Citizen is a much "tighter" runner this time around.

"It gives us more options having (the Derby) under our belts," Lukas said.

Then there are the new jet-setters in the field. Booklet, who passed the Derby for the shorter Preakness route, has only one way of going -- to the front, fast and hard.

They say there is speed and then there is California speed. The Golden State sends the speedy but outclassed state bred Menacing Dennis, who will only insure a solid bet for last place. But he is certain to battle for the lead the first time past the grandstand.

Nine of the 13 horses entered for the 127th Preakness Stakes have won at least one race each in gate-to-wire fashion.

And, if you think War Emblem won't give Baffert a third chance at the Triple Crown, then a quick check of Derby runners may be in order. Of the last 20 runnings, only three horses who won the Preakness Stakes did not participate in the Kentucky Derby. Red Bullet turned the trick in 2000 at the hands of Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, while Aloma's Ruler in 1982 and Deputed Testamony the following year were the only others to win the Preakness without a Derby start.

The question may not be whether a new face will win the Preakness or if War Emblem will be able to do it again. It may be who will be sitting in wait when the breakneck pace melts down -- if it does.

Here is the field for the Grade I, $1 million Preakness Stakes, in post position order, with jockey assignments in parentheses:

A bakers dozen does make the trip over this tricky track important.

Here are my selections:

Good luck in the Preakness. And may the horse be with you.