They’re golden

Geoff Carter

Friday, March 22, 2002 | 1:27 a.m.

You're better off trying to predict the weather. There's no scientific way to predict the winners of the Academy Awards, no signals to heed. You can go by which films win the Golden Globes or the Director's Guild Awards, but those shouldn't be considered a lock: for every Tom Hanks, there's a Marcia Gay Harden ready to emerge from the woodwork.

At least weather systems are visible from space. No matter how far you remove yourself from Hollywood, how detached and clinical your perspective, you can't tell me why "Moulin Rouge" was nominated for Best Picture, yet Baz Luhrmann wasn't nominated for Best Director. Or how that Best Director nod, for David Lynch, ended up being the only nomination "Mulholland Drive" received.

You can't predict what someone's going to like. The Oscars aren't based on a film's merits or popularity they're based on votes cast by academy members, all of whom work in the film industry and half of whom should be in rehab, or restraints. They can be bought by flashy advertising in the trades, swayed by negative press.

It's not scientific. It's not even an educated process. If Pat Buchanan were listed as a Best Actor nominee, he could conceivably draw some votes by mistake or out of perversity.

And yet we try to guess. I will make these confident predictions about Sunday's award ceremony: Woody Allen won't be there. Winners will run over their allotted time for acceptance speeches. Whoopi Goldberg will annoy as much as Dave Letterman did.

Everything else, all other speculation on my part, is as valid as yours, so bet your conscience. We'll go backwards, to build up suspense and so you have time to make nachos:

Best Foreign Language Film: Of the five nominees in this category, only two - Bosnia-Herzegovina's "No Man's Land" and the French hit "Amelie" - truly have momentum. Voters in this category must see all five films, but could be swayed by the notice these two films received in theatrical release. I'd expect "Amelie" to win - it's the "E.T." of foreign films - but wouldn't be surprised if the brilliant and complex "No Man's Land" won instead. Prediction: "Amelie."

Best Animated Feature: Dreamworks' "Shrek" should just edge out Disney /Pixar's "Monster's Inc.," but only because of the way Disney is disliked within the industry right now. A massive Hollywood in-joke, "Shrek" appeals to the same bitter streak that got "South Park's" "Blame Canada" nominated for Best Original Song a few years back. It has nothing to do with the stronger film, as evidenced by the lack of nominations for any traditional cel-style animation, and that's a shame. Prediction: "Shrek."

Best Original Score: Howard Shore's magnificent score to "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" score is practically a lock. John Williams has redundant nominations, James Horner's "Titanic" wins are too recent and Randy Newman's "Monsters Inc." score isn't that memorable. Prediction: "Lord of the Rings."

Best Song: It's a fistfight between two gentrified Brits: Sting's "Until," from "Kate and Leopold," and Paul McCartney's title song from "Vanilla Sky." Most of the voting members of the Academy have Sting discs in their SUVs right now, and preferred John Lennon. Prediction: Sting, "Until."

Best Makeup: Peter Owen and Richard Taylor, for "Lord of the Rings." It's just one of several art and technical awards the picture should win. Prediction: "Lord of the Rings."

Best Visual Effects: Jim Rygiel, Randall William Cook, Richard Taylor and Mark Stetson for "Lord of the Rings"--though "A.I." stands a fighting chance here. Prediction: "Lord of the Rings."

Best Editing: Jill Bilcock will win for "Moulin Rouge." "Memento," though brilliant, may be too experimental for Academy tastes. Prediction: "Moulin Rouge."

Best Sound: "Lord of the Rings." And it deserves to win, too -- it sounded as good as it looked. Prediction: "Lord of the Rings."

Best Costume Design: Catherine Martin and Angus Strathie for "Moulin Rouge." With styles ranging from English provincial to funky Indian, "Moulin Rouge" is a category unto itself. Prediction: "Moulin Rouge."

Best Art Direction/Set Decoration: "Moulin Rouge" again. These should be the only trophies given "Moulin Rouge," unless Nicole Kidman pulls a well-deserved upset. The Academy's snub of director Baz Luhrmann pretty much kills the film's chances in the upper categories. Prediction: "Moulin Rouge."

Best Cinematography: First-time nominee Andrew Lesnie is going to win for "Lord of the Rings," to his great surprise. Epic is back! Prediction: "Lord of the Rings."

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published: Akiva Goldsman, for "A Beautiful Mind." Here's where the popularity contest begins. Has everyone forgotten that Goldsman wrote "Batman and Robin," "Lost in Space" and "Deep Blue Sea?" Yes, they have. Hype is one powerful deodorant. Prediction: "A Beautiful Mind."

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen: Julian Fellowes, "Gosford Park." Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson deserve to win for the subversive "Royal Tenenbaums," but it's going to take the Academy several years to realize how smart these fellows are -- too late for Gene Hackman, who should have gotten a Best Actor nod for his performance as Royal Tenenbaum. Prediction: "Gosford Park."

Best Director: Ron Howard, for "A Beautiful Mind." It's just his turn, and nothing will stop him. Prediction: Ron Howard.

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connelly, for "A Beautiful Mind." She's earned it. It's taken her years to gain the stardom she should have had the minute she starred opposite David Bowie and the Muppets in "Labyrinth." Prediction: Jennifer Connelly.

Best Supporting Actor: Tough call. Ben Kingsley is the odds-on favorite for "Sexy Beast," but voters may go with Jim Broadbent for "Iris" and his show-stopping perfromance in "Moulin Rouge," which wasn't nominated. Personally, I'd like to see Ian McKellen win, but he should have won for "Gods and Monsters," and the world just isn't fair. In any case, this is the most interesting contest this year, and it'll probably go to Broadbent. Prediction: Jim Broadbent.

Best Actress: Barring a Kidman upset -- hey, it worked for Julie Andrews -- this should go to Halle Berry for "Monster's Ball." I mean "should" in the sense of "she will win, unless huge rocks fall from the heavens." No more topless roles -- this is it. Prediction: Halle Berry.

Best Actor: Another tough contest. Will hardcase Russell Crowe beat critical favorite Denzel Washington? Very likely. but it's also possible that the noise between them, fortified by gossip columnists and Spike Lee, could allow Sean Penn to squeak through with his performance in "I Am Sam." Stranger things have happened, but it will probably be a win for Crowe. Prediction: Russell Crowe.

Best Picture: "A Beautiful Mind:" Brian Grazer and Ron Howard, producers. Howard will take the stage, weep like a newborn and thank everyone from Jim Carrey to God Almighty, and then it'll be over. Until next year, we could always place bets on the weather.

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