Columnist Ralph Siraco: Derby plot thickens as race nears

Ralph Siraco

Monday, March 18, 2002 | 8:39 a.m.

Ralph Siraco's horse racing column appears Monday and his Southern California selections run Tuesday-Sunday.

While the NCAA college basketball tournament whittled a starting field of 65 teams down to a sweet 16 as the weekend came to an end, several preliminaries of the equine kind did anything but whittle down contenders in a still wide open Kentucky Derby scramble.

The prep races for this year's Kentucky Derby are serving to do anything but pare the sophomores aspiring for a Derby berth. In fact, they are serving to further confuse even the most seasoned Derby prognosticators. The Derby this year resembles a box office TV soap opera rather than a convergence featuring the best of this generation.

Over the weekend, the Florida Derby favorite got help from his nemesis while giving trainer Kenny McPeek another "Derby" within the span of a week while Bobby Frankel, last year's Eclipse Award-winning trainer, re-entered the Derby picture by upsetting the West Coast Derby futures favorite for a second time, this time in the San Felipe stakes with a different horse.

And, as the connections of last year's Eclipse Award-winning juvenile have now declared intentions for the Kentucky Derby and a stateside return with the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, co-owner Michael Tabor saw a speedy stablemate nudge into the Derby psyche with a decisive return victory in the Gotham Stakes.

So, here is the latest episode of "As the Derby Turns."

Saturday's Florida Derby featured a third meeting between Booklet and Harlan's Holiday. Booklet had beaten Harlan's Holiday in both the Grade III Holy Bull stakes and the Grade I Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park. The victory margins had shrunk to just a nose in their last encounter.

Among the field of 11 sophomores going in the $1 million race was the entry of Smooth Jazz and Nokoma, both owned by one Michael Tabor. Trainer Todd Pletcher said he entered both horses to run their races separately, but it was widely regarded that Smooth Jazz was entered to serve as a speedball for his more promising entrymate. That tactic became evident from the outset of the Grade I centerpiece.

Smooth Jazz accompanied Booklet through the fastest half-mile time in the history of the 1 1/8 mile race. But, instead of setting it up for Nokomoa, who never fired, Smooth Jazz set the table for Harlan's Holiday, who blew by Booklet and registered a solid victory at Gulfstream Park to win the Sunshine State's biggest Derby.

On Sunday, the plot thickened.

First, Aqueduct race track hosted the Grade III Gotham. This one-turn, one-mile $200,000 stakes featured the return of Mayakovsky and Saarland. The speedy Mayakovsky had not run since a runner-up effort in the Sept. 1 Hopeful at Saratoga while Saarland captured the Nov. 24 Remsen at the Big A in his last.

Mayakovsky rolled right to the lead and never looked back. However, he drifted out drastically in the final stages under Edgar Prado while still well clear of runner-up Saarland.

The Michael Tabor-owned winner may join the Derby trail, but if he does, he will reappear in the Wood Memorial at the same New York track. In the meantime, he will return to California to continue his training while trying to correct the bearing out habit. Saarland got just what was expected out of his outing and will also start in the Wood next.

On to Santa Anita for the Grade II San Felipe stakes. Void of an abundance of star-status sophomores, Siphonic remained the West Coast choice for the Derby even after a defeat in his last outing. That race, the Grade II Santa Catalina, saw Siphonic break flat-footed from the starting gate while finishing second to the Bobby Frankel-trained Labamta Babe.

Jerry Bailey, who remained in the saddle for Sunday's race, was fresh off a victory aboard Repent in the Louisiana Derby. Although he had made no commitment to the McPeek runner beyond the Bayou victory, the Eclipse Award-winning rider must have been second-guessing himself after Siphonic's recent performance.

At odds of 2-to-5, Siphonic wound up in a three-way speed encounter with Sham Stakes winner U S S Tinosa and a recent Oaklawn Park maiden-breaker named Medaglia D'oro. The latter was trained by Bobby Frankel and owned by Edmond Gann -- the same connections that campaigned Labamta Babe before he was sidelined with an injury -- and ridden by the world's winningest jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr.

At the far turn of the 1 1/16th-miles feature, Siphonic appeared to have put away his rivals. Then the lightly raced Frankel newcomer rallied to run by Siphonic, and so did U S S Tinosa.

The stunning victory in the $250,000 race, and more importantly the way the win was accomplished, put Frankel, Gann and Pincay back in the Derby picture. It also put Siphonic on a continuing spiral going the wrong way.

Also on Sunday, at Tampa Bay Downs, the Tampa Bay Derby yielded another possible for Churchill Downs. Equality, who had won his previous race by more than 16 lengths, charged through the stretch to win the overshadowed Derby in Florida.

So, who becomes the favorite in the second Kentucky Derby future book pool that was conducted this weekend?

Louisiana Derby winner Repent, who has trouble changing leads, closed at 9-1 odds. Florida Derby winner Harlan's Holiday, who had the race set up and dropped into his lap, closed at 6-1. Gotham winner Mayakovsky, who drifted out badly, closed at 21-1. Medaglia D'oro, who was the most improved and impressive, closed as part of the field bet at 7-1.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Eclipse Award-winner Johannesburg, whose connections finally fessed up to a Kentucky Derby start, closed at 7-1. And, Siphonic, who has now suffered two consecutive losses, closed as the slight favorite at 6-1.

Stay tuned.