War Emblem stalks history in New York

Ralph Siraco

Friday, June 7, 2002 | 9:41 a.m.

History will be made in New York on Saturday. It will be made at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y. And, depending upon the outcome of the race, either a 12th Triple Crown winner will be crowned or a politically and emotionally charged renewal of the Belmont Stakes will produce another near-miss.

There is no doubt about the circumstances surrounding the 134th Belmont Stakes. A horse with War in his name has descended on New York City -- in the former shadow of the Twin Towers -- owned by a prince from Saudi Arabia going after the most coveted trophy in American racing.

War Emblem and his owner must overcome more than the obstacle of 1 1/2 miles of prime Elmont real estate against 10 equine athletes that couldn't care less where they came from or who they are. He must also overcome the mixed emotions of an anticipated crowd of 80,000.

The Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner and his connections will be riding a sea of high emotions under an army of high security. Fueled by the the locale of the event, the New York Racing Association will have a force of at least 400 that will police the massive Belmont Park facility, from rooftop snipers to undercover personnel working the crowd, versus the usual staff of 60.

Although the undeniable ironies place much emphasis on the human participants rather than the equine, there will be no mistaking that the anticipation of witnessing another Triple Crown victory should be the focus of the day.

War Emblem has reached his date with destiny by leading 17 of his classmates on a magical mystery tour through the Churchill Downs home stretch twice to win the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. He repeated his penchant to follow-the-leader after being restrained just off of California speed while drilling that pacesetter, repelling a worthy tracking challenger and staving off a charging stretch runner among nine other non-threatening entrants to win the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.

You would think that four consecutive victories, which also included the Illinois Derby, by a combined 21-plus lengths would pare the competition for the final jewel of the Triple Crown.

Think again.

When War Emblem goes in search of racing immortality on Saturday in the Big Apple, he will have to take on and beat 10 challengers. Half will be horses he has already beaten -- two in the Derby, one in the Preakness and a pair in both the Derby and Preakness.

History shows that of the 26 horses who have gotten this far, 11 have turned the trick with 15 near-misses.

War Emblem will have faced a field of 39 in the three Triple Crown races, passing the 32 total challengers War Admiral defeated in his Triple Crown victory of 1937. But, history also shows that of the 11 Triple Crown winners, an average of only 5.4 runners participated in their Belmont Stakes victories, while the 15 misses had average Belmont field sizes of 9.3 each. And, of the seven Derby-Preakness winners who failed in the Belmont Stakes since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown in 1978, only two were beaten by horses they did not face in either the Derby or Preakness that year.

The amazing Triple Crown proficiency of War Emblem's trainer Bob Baffert should not be overlooked, nor should his accomplishments be taken lightly. In the past five years, through this year's Preakness, Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbies, four Preakness Stakes and one Belmont Stakes. He sits in this spot for the third time in the past five years when most trainers would be considered lucky for one try at the Triple Crown.

Here is the field, in post position order, with opening odds and jockey assignments in parentheses, for the 1 1/2-mile Grade I $1 million Belmont Stakes:

1) ARTAX TOO 50/1 (Jose Santos) -- Broke maiden on sloppy track at Aqueduct on April 28 then won by a head in allowance race over a good Belmont track on May 15. Runs for the vanity of his owner.

2) LIKE A HERO 30/1 (Pat Day) -- Would be considered a solid contender with a little more racing experience. Bred to run all day. Record of 3 wins and a second from four lifetime starts. Won recent Alydar Stakes at Hollywood Park to gain entry.

3) WISEMAN'S FERRY 20/1 (Jorge Chavez) -- Solid runner won the Lone Star Derby in last for second consecutive gate-to-wire victory. Could play the spoiler to War Emblem if he gets into a duel for the lead with Derby-Preakness winner. Trainer O'Callaghan balked at "spoiler role" saying he is in the race to win it for himself.

4) ESSENCE OF DUBAI 30/1 (Jerry Bailey) -- Won two stakes races in homeland before being victimized by Derby pace while a non-threatening 9th. Devout stretch runner will enjoy quick tempo that may develop. Passed Preakness for longer Belmont.

5) SUNDAY BREAK 6/1 (Gary Stevens) -- Most talked-about new shooter. Excluded from Derby field because of earnings, passed Preakness in favor of easy Peter Pan score over the race track. Drysdale trainee has shown promise with 4 victories from 7 lifetime starts. Rider Stevens denied trainer Baffert the 1998 Triple Crown scoring with Victory Gallop.

6) PERFECT DRIFT 8/1 (Eddie Delahoussaye) -- Steady though non-threatening third in the Derby after a victory in the Spiral Stakes. Skipped Preakness for Belmont freshening. Been training lights-out and is a solid contender with the extra distance.

7) MEDAGLIA d'ORO 10/1 (Kent Desormeaux) -- Troubled trip in Derby while 4th followed up with dismal 8th in Preakness. Trainer Bobby Frankel says his horse still fits here, chance to get the trip, and Desormeaux becomes third new rider in as many starts. Don't discount Hall Of Fame trainer.

8) PROUD CITIZEN 5/1 (Mike Smith) -- Most consistent War Emblem "chaser." After solid gate-to-wire Lexington Stakes victory, finished second in the Derby and third in the Preakness after a five-wide trip. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Belmont four times in the past eight years and would relish a Triple Crown "stopper" victory here. Remember, Baffert was defeated in both 1997 and 1998 by runners his Derby-Preakness winners beat in the first two jewels of their respective Belmont tries. This guy fits that mold. Beware.

9) WAR EMBLEM 1/1 (Victor Espinoza) -- Won the Kentucky Derby. Won the Preakness Stakes. It appears the only way he becomes another near-miss instead of racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner is if his desire to be in front compromises into a meltdown. Distance and demeanor stand between him and history.

10) MAGIC WEISNER 15/1 (Richard Migliore) -- This was the guy who was motoring at War Emblem in the Preakness Stakes. Beaten less than a length from 11th to second in the Preakness, he is 3-2-0 from five starts this year. Extra distance made to order. Now the question is: One-race wonder or dark horse special?

11) SARAVA 30/1 (Edgar Prado) -- Serves as a graphic reminder of the fleeting fortunes of the game. Trainer Kenny McPeek had pre-Derby favorites Repent and Harlan's Holiday. Repent was injured before the Derby; Harlan's Holiday lost the Derby as the favorite and combined with a Preakenss failure also lost the horse to another trainer. Poetic justice with the Sir Barton winner or another dud for trainer?

For whatever anyone may think, War Emblem is American made. But, he stands too short a betting price for me.

PICKS: PERFECT DRIFT

WAR EMBLEM

PROUD CITIZEN