Columnist Erin Neff: Bookmaker sets imaginary lines for this fall’s elections

Erin Neff

Friday, June 7, 2002 | 5:13 a.m.

ODDS ARE, like most Nevadans, you've probably played a Super Bowl parlay card, put down $2 on a pony to win the Kentucky Derby or at least occasionally glanced at the tote board on your way to the slots, movies or restaurants.

And with sports books bursting thanks to hockey and basketball finals, Tyson madness and a Triple Crown contender, political junkies and pundits are champing at the bit for this fall's elections.

Nevada sports books don't offer betting on political elections, although they will occasionally offer "just for fun" lines on everything from who will win "Survivor" to the Oscars.

In that spirit, I asked several bookmakers around town whether they'd handicap a few of the state's races as a purely fun proposition.

Not surprisingly, most of them declined after upper management suggested the casino's own political ties might not make setting such lines fun for the executives.

But Imperial Palace Race and Sports Book Director Jay Kornegay didn't need to consult with much more than voter registration numbers and conventional wisdom to post fictional lines on three of the contests at the Sun's request.

In the Congressional District 3 race, Kornegay made Republican Jon Porter (-160) a slight favorite over Democrat Dario Herrera (+130).

In other words, a Herrera win would get you $13 for every $10 bet and you'd have to bet $16 to win $10 with Porter.

Kornegay made that line based on current reports about the race, including a Republican poll showing Porter with an 11-point lead and the Republican voter registration edge in the district.

"Because there's a slight lead in that area, I make Porter a slight favorite," Kornegay said.

Herrera's campaign manager, Achim Bergmann, said if the Imperial Palace posted the line, there would be money to be made on his man.

"I would think the line's wrong because I think we have the advantage on the issues," Bergmann said. "When people focus on issues, moving forward to Election Day, I think we have the clear advantage."

Bergmann pointed to past elections where Democrats did well in the precincts that make up the new congressional district: Democrat Sen. Harry Reid beat Republican John Ensign in 1998 and Al Gore beat George Bush in 2000.

Herrera relishes the underdog role, claiming at every turn he's a "fighter for Nevada families" and even striding into the state Democratic convention to the theme from "Rocky."

Note to Herrera: Rocky lost in that flick. Bet on Porter.

Kornegay sees the lieutenant governor's race as a bit closer and posted it for the Sun as a pick-em between Republican incumbent Lorraine Hunt (-115) and Democratic Clark County Commissioner Erin Kenny (-115).

Why does he see it so close?

Kenny already has almost $1 million and will benefit from labor support, while Hunt -- herself a former Clark County commissioner -- has already won a statewide race and is known in Northern and rural Nevada.

Since this line is posted early in the season, there's plenty of time for movement by November. But this bettor would place a very small wager on Hunt, realizing that late season surges pushed the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Nets into the finals of their respective sports.

One place we don't need to hedge is in the governor's coronation, er, race.

Want a line on Democratic state Sen. Jon Neal's chances against incumbent Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn?

Even for fun, Kornegay couldn't find a number big enough to denote Guinn's advantage.

"It seems too lopsided to even put a line on that one," he said.

And since this bettor can't get anyone -- not even perpetual underdog player and Democratic Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman -- to take Neal, I guess all bets are off.

Although playing with the fictional lines was just a matter of fun, there might be a serious solution to voter apathy somewhere in this exercise.

Republican campaign consultant Mike Slanker -- who works with Porter -- giggled when he was told about the lines that had been set, but suddenly began thinking about their potential role in advancing democracy and boosting participation.

"Want voter turnout at 80 percent?" he asks. "Put a line on it."