Columnist Dean Juipe: Forecasters undersell iffy Rebels

Dean Juipe

Wednesday, July 31, 2002 | 9:30 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

Fourth place, nice and safe, and with a minor bowl bid.

That was the prediction for UNLV at Tuesday's Mountain West Conference football meeting in San Diego.

It was the definitive middle-of-the-pack, take-no-chances forecast for the Rebels and it matches how the majority of the early analysts see the team performing.

But something far superior to fourth place is within UNLV's grasp. With a little luck and a great deal of determination, the Rebels could actually challenge for the conference title, and -- dare we suggest it? -- rekindle notions of exclusivity and the top 25.

The reason for such an optimistic view: not only does Jason Thomas have a quarterback coach this year, UNLV is deep in offensive talent and figures to put more than its share of points on the board.

As it was, despite finishing 3-4 in league play last season UNLV outscored its opposition by 29 points. What that means is that it lost a close game or two, as was the case in setbacks to BYU and Colorado State, while winning the games it did by a wide margin.

Overall the Rebels were 4-7 last season and there were two -- and maybe only two -- big reasons why: Thomas was pitiful and the early schedule was daunting if not overly formidable. Opening with Arkansas, Northwestern, Arizona and BYU made for an attractive schedule on paper, but in reality it was more than UNLV could handle.

This year's nonconference slate is challenging without posing the ominous repercussions that the Rebels faced a year ago if they don't get off to a quick start. That said, it will be difficult enough and coming out 3-2 against Wisconsin, Kansas, Oregon State, Toledo and Nevada-Reno will qualify as a successful run.

Yet each of those games is also winnable, for those inclined to think big even before practice is formally under way. Four of those teams -- all but 10-2 Toledo, to be precise -- had losing records last season and as a group the five was a pedestrian 26-31.

Who's to say Wisconsin beats UNLV simply because it has been known to be a Big Ten contender? Or that Kansas beats UNLV on account of the Rebels' 1-6 record against Big 12 foes? Or that Oregon State prevails on the strength of a fourth-place finish in the polls two years ago? Or that Toledo will be as good as it was a year ago when it demolished Penn State and Marshall by the combined score of 66-6? Or that UNR will even put up much of a fight?

Is 4-1 against that fivesome out of the question?

If it isn't, then contending for Mountain West honors isn't either, even if the Rebels have to play their three hardest opponents -- Colorado State, Utah and BYU -- on the road.

Getting Thomas to jell has to be UNLV's primary concern. Two years ago he drew NFL scouts and Heisman whispers during a spectacular sophomore season, but last year he was awful. The scouts will be back (and considering him for more than just returning kicks) and the Heisman voters will take notice if he can once again play to his potential and straighten out the kinks in his form.

The team's immediate fate is on his shoulders, to be sure, and with no one quite sure what to expect the Rebels are undersold at fourth. But they could be better than that, much better.