Travel slowdown likely around Sept. 11

Monday, July 29, 2002 | 11:06 a.m.

SUN STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS

Many people appear to be avoiding travel around Sept. 11, causing unusually weak airline and hotel bookings after Labor Day, travel industry officials say.

Travel usually slackens after Labor Day, but early indicators suggest that the first anniversary of the attacks will see a sharper drop-off than normal.

Investors are also reacting to the upcoming anniversary, airline analysts say.

"There's concern that if the terrorists who are out there want to show their strength, the thing to do is to attack on that day," says Credit Suisse First Boston analyst James Higgins. "We think it's keeping people from buying."

Occupancy levels at Las Vegas hotel-casinos have improved significantly over the past several months. Still, vacancies remain slightly higher than the same period last year, according to recent figures from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. The agency hasn't released projections on activity around Sept. 11.

Some casinos say that positive trend is likely to continue through September.

"Our bookings are very strong," said Kurt Ouchida, a spokesman for The Venetian hotel-casino in Las Vegas. "We attribute that strength to the fact that rooms are selling at a very high rate and we also have the Vision convention booked at The Venetian."

The International Vision Expo is expected to draw 15,000 people -- one of the property's larger conventions -- Sept. 12-14.

Harrah's Entertainment Inc.'s two Las Vegas casinos haven't yet seen any decrease in bookings on or around Sept. 11, and traffic appears to be stable through that month, company spokesman David Strow said.

"We recovered very quickly from the post-Sept. 11 slowdown in Las Vegas and were fortunate to outpace the market's growth during that time," Strow said. "We don't see that that is going to change in the future."

Las Vegas-based Strip operator MGM MIRAGE -- which has the largest number of rooms in town -- is less clear on what the future holds.

"I think it's too early to tell," MGM MIRAGE spokesman Alan Feldman said. Since Sept. 11, customers have booked trips on shorter notice than before, he added.

American Airlines already plans to operate fewer flights on domestic and international routes on Sept. 11, a Wednesday. It is waiting to see how bookings develop before deciding which flights to cut, spokesman John Hotard says.

"People have other things to do that day," he says. "They're going to be preoccupied with that day and probably won't be traveling."

AirTran is reducing its schedule by 2 percent for September, partly because it believes that people will avoid flying around the 11th. Delta and Continental also say advance bookings indicate a reluctance to travel around the date.

"I don't think this is any surprise," says Vivian Deuschl, national spokeswoman for Ritz-Carlton, a Marriott subsidiary. "People are afraid."

Advance bookings are down at all Ritz-Carlton hotels, Deuschl says. The troubled economy and early Jewish holy days in September contribute, but she says Sept.11 is the main reason people are planning fewer business and social events. New York, in particular, is seeing fewer social functions then.

Other signs that Americans will stay put for the anniversary:

"There will be a lull the week of Sept.11, but I don't think it's going to be 100 percent lost revenue," says Keith Jackson, a vice president of the Rosenbluth travel agency. "We think the week prior and post will be busier than normal."