Study: Yucca stigma will hit economy

Thursday, Jan. 31, 2002 | 11:05 a.m.

Las Vegas' economy will be hobbled almost immediately if the federal government designates Yucca Mountain as the nation's nuclear waste repository, according to a study released Wednesday.

The study, sponsored by Clark County, says if Yucca Mountain is officially named, tourism, property values and gaming revenue will immediately drop because of the stigma attached to the waste.

County Commissioner Myrna Williams called the report astonishing.

"(A repository at Yucca) would wipe us out," Williams said.

Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said he would recommend making Yucca Mountain the repository. President Bush is expected to get the recommendation within the next month, and the government could make a final decision later this year.

As part of the county's study, more than 1,000 visitors to Las Vegas were interviewed in December to determine the likelihood of their return should nuclear waste be shipped to Yucca, 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas.

According to the survey:

The study used its tourist survey along with state studies and new interviews to conclude that the economy will be further weakened with the government's announcement, saying impacts will "occur immediately."

The study estimates a 10 percent to 15 percent drop in tourism translates into $1.1 billion to $1.7 billion in lost gaming revenues.

Frank Fahrenkopf, president of the American Gaming Association, the industry's top Washington lobbying group, was surprised the study suggested that there would be only a 10 percent tourism dip if a repository were constructed in Nevada. He thought it would be as much as 20 percent.

"The difficulty we face is that you're going to have all of the nation's nuclear waste buried 90 miles (northwest) of the city, and there's always going to be a certain segment of the population regardless of how educated they are about alleged safety that is going to be concerned," Fahrenkopf said.

The study say that "according to virtually every gaming industry representative interviewed, the most serious risk is from the stigma that will result if there is any accident of any kind involving the shipment of high-level radioactive waste."

Rob Powers, vice president of communications for the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, said he had not seen the study and was hesitant to comment on it.

"If indeed the study is sound and those numbers are true, that's cause for concern," Powers said.

He acknowledged that if Yucca Mountain becomes a waste dump, it will be a challenge to create new promotions to keep tourists coming to Las Vegas.

"It's a fine line to walk because you don't want to raise a red flag," Powers said. "Las Vegas has always been promoted as a place to come and get away. We've never had to deal with something like this before; it's new ground for us."

The report also says government will have to spend up to $2.67 billion -- to to prepare for a nuclear accident -- over an expected 24-year period that waste will be shipped to the site.

Officials from the Nuclear Energy Institute, the top industry lobbying group, declined to comment today.

Former Gov. Robert List, who is now a lobbyist for the nuclear energy industry, called the report a "red herring" and said it amounted to "scare tactics."

He said Yucca Mountain could be an economic benefit to the state by bringing thousands of high-paying jobs and an industry that could help diversify the economy.

He said he thinks Nevadans are beginning to see through the "scare tactics," and he said once Congress approves the dump, residents will want their public officials to negotiate for compensation.

"Our public officials have really held the federal government's feet to the fire," List said this morning from New York, where he was attending an international economic forum. "Through their resistance, they have forced the DOE to do a better job."

"Gov. List and the proponents of Yucca Mountain, their responsibility is to downplay the risk," former U.S. Sen. Richard Bryan, who is also a former governor, said. "The fact of the matter is nuclear waste is scary stuff.

"It's not only scary, it's scary for tens of thousands of years. Obviously the nuclear power industry would prefer to classify this as a benign compound of highly technical physics."

The seven-chapter, 82-page report will be part of Nevada's response to the Department of Energy's final environmental impact study on Yucca Mountain.

The study, officials said, can be used as leverage in the state's battle against the repository should the issue proceed to Congress after the president's expected recommendation.

The study tracks what would happen if there is an accident involving vehicles carrying nuclear waste, saying an accident would cause catastrophic problems for Nevada.

"Transportation is one of the sound arguments against Yucca Mountain," Greg Bortolin, Gov. Kenny Guinn's spokesman, said, noting he had yet to see the study. "... You can chalk up one more for the state's fight against Yucca Mountain." Employment would suffer 10-fold if an accident involving nuclear waste were to occur, the report says. Shipment of nuclear waste would account for 5,393 lost jobs without an accident. That number would increase to 54,429 should an accident occur, the report says.

Personal spending would follow a similar pattern. Without a shipping accident, $4.7 billion would be lost between 2010 and 2035. An accident involving leaking radiation would result in a $42.1 billion loss, according to the report.

A severe nuclear accident could result in gaming losses of up to $3.7 billion.

If nuclear shipments continue for 24 years, collective property values would decrease as much as $8.7 billion.

"Obviously, the more serious the problem, the greater the impacts will be," said Keith Schwer of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The shortest routes from 103 nuclear reactor sites throughout the country to Yucca Mountain traverse Clark County, the report notes. The Department of Energy has yet to designate shipping routes.

The study says of the likely transportation routes, nuclear waste will pass 37 schools, two major health facilities, one special events center and 23 hotels.

List, though, said it's unlikely that the materials would not even pass through the Las Vegas Valley, and he said the governor will have a say in how the waste goes through Nevada.

An average of 457 shipments annually would expose people within a half-mile of the track to 1 millirem to 200 millirems of radiation. An average chest X-ray produces about 10 millirems.

Clark County Commissioner Dario Herrera said accidents that occur anywhere along the transportation route will draw headlines worldwide and Las Vegas -- an international destination -- will be mentioned as the end of the route.

Herrera noted the possibility of terrorist attacks on nuclear waste shipments and said the Department of Energy had not studied security issues.

"The security issue is an important element of our opposition," Herrera said. "The DOE has not attempted to address the security concerns while disguising its recommendation as a promotion of national security interests."

Sun reporters Erin Neff, Benjamin Grove and Adrienne Packer contributed to this story.