Columnist Jon Ralston: Daunting tasks for Guinn, Reid

Friday, Jan. 18, 2002 | 4:33 a.m.

Yes, they are Nevada's most powerful politicians. But Gov. Kenny Guinn and Senate Majority Whip Harry Reid are about to be caught between the pincers of raised expectations and inexorable realities.

Guinn put his credibility on the line -- along with other state Republicans -- when he praised George W. Bush during Campaign '00 for declaring he would decide the suitability of Yucca Mountain based on that pleasant-sounding but hollow determinant known as "sound science." Reid similarly invested his credibility last June when he induced Majority Leader Tom Daschle to announce authoritatively, "As long as we're in the majority, it's dead."

So if Bush and Daschle mean what they said, the dump fight already is over and there's nothing to worry about. Bush knows that the General Accounting Report indicates that hundreds of scientific questions remain unresolved and, last time I looked, the Democrats controlled the Senate.

But since politicians say what they really mean about as often as you can actually drive the speed limit on U.S. 95 during rush hour, perhaps no one should declare victory just yet. And that means first Guinn and then Reid have dicey tasks ahead.

The timeline is simple: Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham will present his formal recommendation to Bush next month. There is no deadline for Bush to act, but most observers believe he will quickly rubber-stamp his Cabinet member's decision to try to dispose of the issue. Guinn has 60 days to veto Bush's recommendation and then Congress has 90 days to override or sustain the governor's action.

So it's quite simple: Either Guinn persuades Bush to undo Abraham's recommendation or Reid has to stop the vote in the Senate. The House is run by nuclear dump supporters, so Rep. Jim Gibbons and Shelley Berkley have almost no chance to cobble together a majority to vote with Nevada. Guinn has said he plans to meet with Bush to try to persuade the president of the error of Abraham's ways. But consider what happens after such a sit-down. Yes, if Bush decides not to recommend Yucca Mountain, Guinn could become more popular than, say, Mayor Oscar Goodman. But if, as everyone expects, Bush rejects the governor's pleas, Guinn will be accused of being ineffectual. The best Guinn could hope for, it would seem, is for Bush to wait a little while (unlike Abraham), as if he were considering Guinn's arguments, before he acts to designate Yucca Mountain.

This looks like a potential political disaster for Guinn -- although it is difficult for disasters to befall someone who has no opponent. But he has only himself to blame for burnishing Bush's dump credentials in 2000, just so the then-presidential candidate could be assured of Nevada's four electoral votes (he needed them, too, as it turned out). It's not that the governor isn't doing all he can under the circumstances. But these are circumstances he -- and his advisers who claim to be close to the Bush folks -- helped create.

As for Reid, his problem may be worse. If Daschle can keep the matter from coming to the floor within 90 days -- he controls the Senate agenda -- he surely would do that, wouldn't he? Maybe. But what if the Senate parliamentarian rules that it's a resolution that must be voted on and can bypass the majority leader? Then, Daschle's hands would be tied. (This, and other parliamentary acts of legerdemain, are being vetted by both Reid's staff and consultants hired by Guinn.)

If it comes to the floor, can Reid hold all of the Democrats who serve under him as majority whip? Doubtful. And then, and only then, The Third Man comes into play, the second half of Harry Ensign. Could Reid get enough Democrats and Ensign enough Republicans to get a majority to sustain Guinn's veto?

Still unlikely.

This has the same disastrous potential for Reid -- Senate powerhouse rolled by leader or Senate powerhouse can't stop the bill most inimical to his home state are not storylines he wants to read.

And if that's how this plays out, what do the Nevada politicians do then?

They will tout the state's legal options and the difficult Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing process as the best hopes in the next chapter of the fight. But they will have a difficult time persuading the public that the end of this very repetitive and very depressing story is not nigh.

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