Jobless rate up; rebound foreseen

Leigh Strope

Friday, Jan. 4, 2002 | 9:54 a.m.

WASHINGTON -- The nation's unemployment rate climbed to 5.8 percent in December, highest in more than six years, as businesses cut 124,000 jobs and the year ended with the job market in the depths of recession.

The unemployment rate was up 0.2 percentage points from a revised 5.6 percent in November, the Labor Department reported today. Since the recession began in March, businesses have slashed 1.4 million jobs -- and 1.1 million in the last four months of the year.

December's loss of 124,000 jobs reflected continued declines in manufacturing, retail, air transportation and temporary employment services. But the hemorrhaging slowed somewhat last month. Job losses had averaged about 400,000 a month in October and November.

The last time the nation's unemployment rate stood at 5.8 percent was March 1995. It hit 5.9 percent in September 1994.

But 2001 was a particularly bad year for manufacturing, which shed 1.3 million jobs -- or about 7 percent of its work force. Many manufacturing companies lost more than one in 10 of their workers last year, mainly in furniture, metals, industrial machinery, textiles and apparel.

A sliver of hope for manufacturing appeared in December's employment report, as the factory workweek increased by 0.4 hour to 40.7 hours and factory overtime rose 0.2 hour to 3.9 hours.

December declines also were heavy in retail with 77,000 job cuts, particularly at general merchandise stores and retailers such as toy stores and jewelry stores, both of which fell short of their typical holiday hiring.

Those declines were tempered slightly by job gains in auto dealerships as free financing beckoned customers. During 2001 retail had added 200,000 jobs by July, but losses since then have left employment down by 73,000 during the year.

Air transportation, which continues to be socked by weakened demand since the terrorist attacks, lost 26,000 jobs. There also were sizable losses in communications and public utilities.

The job market will be one of the last signs of recovery if, as analysts project, the nation emerges from recession sometime next year. The unemployment rate probably will continue to rise in the next few months because companies will be reluctant to hire back workers.

Many economists predict the jobless rate will top out at around 6.5 percent by June or July, plateau for a while, and start going down in the fall or winter.

To revive the economy, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 11 times in 2001. Analysts generally expect those rate reductions will help the economy stage a recovery by the spring.

Signs of a bottoming out already have appeared.

Reports released last week showed consumer confidence rebounded in December, home sales surged in November and demand for many big-ticket items posted gains in November.

Adding to that good news, the Commerce Department said in a report released Thursday that construction activity rose by a solid 0.8 percent in November, led by a sharp increase in spending on big government projects. Commercial projects, including hotels and industrial complexes, by private builders also posted gains.

For December job growth in services and government helped offset the overall employment decline, the new Labor Department report said. Service employment grew by 72,000, and hospitals, home health care and private education had the largest gains. In government, job gains totaled 63,000.

Temporary employment firms continued to lay off workers, cutting 55,000 positions in December. The industry has shed 688,000 jobs since September 2000, or 19 percent of its employment.

Overall, the proportion of the nation's population holding a job last month edged down to 63 percent compared with 64.5 percent in December 2000.