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Letter: Estimates must be published before Iraq war

Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2002 | 8:10 a.m.

As the U.S. prepares for war with Iraq, there is an appalling dearth of comprehensive estimates as to the probable consequences. Several governmental and non-governmental agencies have an administrative, moral, and/or semi-legal obligation to provide the following data: U.S. and Iraqi military and civilian deaths, U.S. troops involved, U.S. occupation time in years, the increase in the cost of oil, the cost in billions to defeat and occupy Iraq and the total cost in billions of dollars.

Such estimates could prove invaluable to politicians. Such estimates would be equally indispensable for informed public participation. Winston Churchill said, "War is little more than a catalogue of mistakes and misfortunes." The historian Barbara Tuchman said, "War is the unfolding of miscalculations." Richard Nixon said, "I'm not going to be the first American president who loses a war." Insofar as war is saturated with misfortunes, miscalculations and misjudgments, it is imperative to document the probable consequences.

If there was general consensus around 1965 on what similar estimates would have been, then perhaps the U.S. could have avoided 55,000 deaths in Vietnam. If several states require car companies to provide estimates for car repairs, it only seems prudent that agencies be urged to provide such estimates for war.

MARK BIRD

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