Columnist Jon Ralston: Re-election tops Reid’s wish list

Friday, Dec. 6, 2002 | 4:04 a.m.

Reid has visions of Rep. Jim Gibbons dancing in his head and has been calling the Strip Santas to implore them to leave a lump of coal in the Republican congressman's stocking. Gibbons has been making his wish list and checking it twice before presenting it to the White House Santa, who could help make the congressman's dream of being a member of the Club of 100 come true.

In case you are unaware, Reid's re-election campaign began Nov. 6 -- the morning after the election in which the teetotalling senior senator nevertheless had a pounding hangover after the Democrats lost the Senate and his Nevada-sponsored slate of candidates were landslide losers.

Thus the holiday season flurry of activity at the seats of government in Nevada, which is housed on Las Vegas Boulevard South, and in the U.S., which is at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Reid is doing what any sensible incumbent would do, especially under these circumstances -- get anointed and scare Gibbons out of the contest. If the senator can frighten Gibbons into taking the path of least resistance (stay in the House), the Republicans have no one else who could credibly challenge Reid.

(The senator has fretted that Gov. Kenny Guinn will run, which has been the subject of much Beltway chatter the last few weeks. But the chances of that are zilch. Guinn has anti-Potomac Fever. Besides, how many governors lay the groundwork for a senatorial bid by proposing a billion-dollar tax increase?)

Many believe Gibbons will find the lure of the race irresistible, especially if President Bush woos him. Some Nevada operatives are off to D.C. this week to meet with the president's political alter ego, Karl Rove.

So many factors lead to the conclusion that Gibbons could defeat Reid, but one stands out. Reid has been able to survive his toughest challenges from Republicans -- Jim Santini in 1986 and John Ensign in 1998 -- by running respectably in Republican Washoe County. Ensign barely beat Reid in the North, winning by just over 2,000 votes.

Gibbons, on the other hand, is a monster in Washoe County. It's where he lives. And he also is beloved in the rural counties, where Reid is reviled. All he would have to do is hold his base in Clark County -- and his district continues to push into the South and Gibbons continues to make more appearances down here.

Add in Gibbons' anti-tax persona, his retail politicking skills, the state's GOP tilt and the likelihood that Bush will be immensely popular and on the ballot and you understand why Reid's new first name could soon be Ex.

Reid, though, is no pushover. What he doesn't have in charisma, he makes up for in indomitability. He lost a Senate race by a few hundred votes in 1974, then a mayoral contest by a landslide the next year and just kept clawing his way back until he was elected to the House in '82 and the Senate in '86. He is resilient, ruthless and ready.

In between meetings to rebuild the creaky Democratic Party's structure, Reid has been trying to get commitments from Strip folks for early, exclusive commitments. Meanwhile Gibbons has been trying to get the casino bosses to keep their powder dry until the spring.

Beyond whatever personal factors play into the congressman's decision -- conventional wisdom has it that his wife, Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, would prefer he run for governor in '06 -- Gibbons will also see what he can extract from Bush before he commits. Will the president find Nevada on a map and pay a visit? Might the nation's GOP Numero Uno ensure Gibbons gets a plum committee assignment? What financial guarantees can Gibbons obtain for what will be a $10 million race?

And then it comes down to whether he will risk a House seat for life for a race that he surely could win, but against the man who will stop at nothing to beat him.

Circumstances could change, too. Minority Leader Tom Daschle could leave the Senate -- either to run for president or to retire. Then Reid likely would become the No. 1 Democrat in the Senate, which is a better sell than "minority whip." And who knows whether Bush will still be as popular a year from now -- see Bush the Elder's numbers, which dropped precipitously from 1991's Persian Gulf War highs to 1992's "It's the economy, stupid" lows.

And two interesting wild cards to consider:

One, Yucca Mountain. Might that issue prevent Bush from being much help, even if he remains immensely popular in the state he won by four points? On the other hand, what is Reid going to do? Most people just see the political fight as lost.

Two, John Ensign. The GOP senator has never been especially close to Gibbons and has a genuine friendship with Reid. He indicated last week that he would not do much to help any GOP challenger to his new best friend Reid -- and Ensign could be very helpful to Gibbons if he wanted to be.

But Gibbons might just conclude: Reid can have Ensign as his friend. If the president wants to be my pal and he wants me to run against Reid, who am I to say no?