Columnist Jon Ralston: Out on a limb with election picks

Friday, Aug. 30, 2002 | 4:17 a.m.

Is district attorney contender Abbi Silver really a liar who excoriated David Roger for taking strip club money and then solicited the topless joint owners, or are the clubs so in love with Roger or so in hate with her that they would fabricate a story to hurt her candidacy?

Should Republican voters in Erin Kenny's County Commission district vote for the Republican who might become a Democrat, and who just a few months ago said he was getting out of politics (Mark James), or should they vote for the Democrat-turned-Republican who just a few days before the end of filing announced he was quitting the race (Tim Cory)?

And should Democratic voters in Myrna Williams' commission district vote for her because she has experience and knows issues and has a picture of herself with Mayor Bobblehead, or should they choose newcomer Nevada Stupak, who doesn't know issues but also has a picture of himself with Mayor Bobblehead?

Decisions, decisions. Of course, if you voted early to boost turnout to impressive levels (it might get to 25 percent), you have already made yours, without much deliberation, and certainly without waiting to watch the measure of these contenders in the final days to see what they will do to win.

So what will happen? I'll take Kenny Guinn to win (I am all-knowing) and Williams over Stupak, but I won't venture a guess in those judicial races. Predicting election outcomes is a dangerous business -- you risk ridicule if you're wrong and few huzzahs if you are right. And primaries are even more dicey -- low turnouts and crazy dynamics inside small political subdivisions can make even the greatest pundit look like a hack columnist who thinks he knows something about politics.

Those sound like a priori excuses. No matter. Be it bravery or foolishness, let the tradition continue:

In the battle of carpetbaggers from Reno, Earlene Forsythe's money wins out over Francis Allen's shoe leather. In other races, Assemblyman Doug Bache holds on, Chad Christensen shows that LDS backers beat bankruptcy revelations, and somehow the indomitable Bob Price survives against Kelvin Atkinson.

Don't ask me how because you might think I was just guessing.