Columnist Dean Juipe: Script calls for resolving strike threat

Dean Juipe

Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2002 | 9:46 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

They're not going to strike.

Not only that, this whole dispute between the players and owners in Major League Baseball is a hoax. It's all contrived, as might be apparent when an agreement between the two supposedly warring parties is announced sometime between today and the strike date of Aug. 29.

You can call this a guess or refer to it as a revelation, and maybe the full truth will never come out. But a solution is at hand and everyone will walk away happy, just as they've privately known and plotted for the last couple of years.

For all of the posing on both sides -- the owners grandstanding for a complete overhaul of their basic agreement with the players, and the players' stated demands to continue the status quo -- what has emerged is a conspiracy of sorts, albeit one that will play out to a festive ending.

Consider the situation at face value: If baseball were to suffer a ninth work stoppage in 30 years, the impact would be colossal. Yes, the fans have always come back following a strike or a walkout, but at some point an interruption would be catastrophic and the repercussions devastating.

Both sides are fully aware of the inherent dangers. And you can take it to the bank that they're going to call a halt to the battle and get out of the cross-fire with a new labor agreement intact.

Not only will they come away unscathed, they will -- and here's the real catch -- be immersed in glad tidings, congratulations and a renewed enthusiasm toward the sport as the season is "saved" and heads into its home stretch. From a timing perspective and factoring in the increased interest in football as we move toward September, a settlement of the baseball dispute would provide the sport with a huge boost at a most convenient and opportune spot on the calendar.

The benefits will be substantial, for players and owners alike. The season will proceed not only without interruption, but with the public more riveted than ever on its pennant races.

Once a settlement is announced, the average fan will take an above-average interest in the game.

And, you know, for all the rhetoric and the supposed laundry list of issues that seemingly have plagued the negotiations to date, there's really only one lingering and tough-to-resolve item on the table, and that's this revenue sharing/luxury tax conundrum. But a compromise is easily discernible upon closer examination, and it's one that initiates a luxury tax without costing the players a dime.

Luxury taxes exist in other mainstream sports and baseball players can hardly give up their jobs (and their average salaries of $2.4 million per year) simply out of hardheadedness. They'll capitulate on that one, and take some sort of satisfying trade-off in exchange -- such as reduced or delayed diligence when it comes to steroid testing.

Mark my words: The owners will back off on the notion of drastic changes in their labor contract with the players, and the day will come in the very near future when each side will stand before the microphones and cameras appearing appeased and/or resigned to a settlement for the good of what is still arguably the national pastime.

There's a script and it's going to be followed. Baseball will get its peace.