Columnist Ralph Siraco: As the Derby nears, questions still linger

Ralph Siraco

Monday, April 8, 2002 | 9:05 a.m.

Ralph Siraco's horse racing column appears Monday and his Southern California selections run Tuesday-Sunday.

There is a saying in racing circles that fits the performances of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls who came out victorious over the weekend -- "Winning Ugly."

This happens when a horse wins a race in an unimpressive, awkward way. Or when other contenders in the race encounter enough trouble for the outcome to be in question.

After this weekend there are plenty of questions. And if the answers don't become clear by this weekend's final big three Kentucky Derby prep races, then the answer will ultimately come May 4 in the feature race at Churchill Downs.

The anticipated sophomore debut of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Eclipse Award winner Johannesburg in Europe, the extra distance of the Santa Anita Derby for Came Home, the longer home stretch of Sportsman's Park for stretch running Repent and another Florida tightener for Equality left mixed results and a still murky picture for this year's edition of the Kentucky Derby.

Which, by the way, is less than a month away.

The only clear leader of this three-year-old crop is a filly. Take Charge Lady, who won the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, has overpowered her gender and is solidly pointing for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, May 3 -- the day before the run for the roses. Because she is owned by the same people as Derby probable Repent, the likelihood of a last-minute Derby flip-flop is remote.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien did his own flip-flop over the pond over the weekend. Johannesburg was supposed to return to the races in Saturday's Foster's Trial at Lingfield but wound up in Sunday's Gladness Stakes at the Curraugh.

O'Brien instead sent Castle Gandolfo to win the Trial then watched his star Derby prospect suffer a sophomore debut defeat. Beaten in a photo-finish by a four-year-old mare, Johannesburg left his trainer without an apparent excuse for the effort while he left an apparent upset stomach to those who bet him down to favoritism in the Kentucky Derby future book.

Another Kentucky Derby future book favorite also left his backers looking for the bromo this weekend.

Repent, who had reeled off victories in the Risen Star stakes and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds while "winning ugly," lost just as ugly in the $500,000 Illinois Derby on Saturday. Sent off the prohibitive favorite in the field of nine at nine furlongs, Repent never look comfortable on the tight turns of Sportsman's oval and rallied way to late to menace the gate-to-wire winner War Emblem.

Jockey Jerry Bailey seemed to be a little upset that the Kenny McPeek trainee hasn't learned to change leads and run straight yet.

The richest Kentucky Derby prep was the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby. Heavy favorite Came Home was being asked to stretch his stamina to the 1 1/8-mile distance against anything but a star-stellar field of seven. Jockey Chris McCarron summoned all Came Home had to win the Arcadia version over Easy Grades and a Turf Paradise shipper named Lusty Latin. In his wake, however, was Gotham winner Mayakovsky, leading many who watched Came Home finish in slow time while dead tired to conclude that both runners are better suited to mile distances.

Although the Santa Anita Derby has produced three Kentucky Derby winners in the past six years, this renewal is not likely be one.

The third in the trio of Saturday Derby prep races came at Gulfstream Park. Because the Florida track extended its meeting, track management created a new race for the division after the pinnacle Florida Derby. The first running of the $200,000 Aventura stakes featured Tampa Bay Derby winner Equality and "others." Well, one of the others named Marasca outran the odds-on favorite in the 1 1/16 mile event. leading to another saying of the equine racing circle. When a horse looks better than most think, then it is speculated that he has a "hole in 'em," meaning that a loss is inevitable.

So, Came Home won ugly, Repent lost ugly and Johannesburg and Equality have holes in 'em. All uninspiring and fragile performances.

However, there was a "runner" unveiled this week. On opening day at Keeneland, in the Transylvania Stakes, trainer Neil Drysdale uncorked a German-bred named Flying Dash to win the Friday grass feature.

If there is any light to be shed on this Kentucky Derby picture it will have to come this weekend when the final trio of big preps are conducted around the country on Saturday. All are at 1 1/8 miles and carry six-figure purses: The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park will feature what leading contenders are left for the Derby.