Columnist Dean Juipe: Finishing 4-0 may not save Rebels

Dean Juipe

Friday, Oct. 26, 2001 | 2:07 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or 259-4084.

The carrot that the UNLV coaching staff is dangling in front of its football team has been munched down to almost nothing. In fact, it's a mere stub of an incentive.

"Win the rest of our games and we're bowl eligible," the Rebels have been told over and over this week, the coaches reduced to a mathematical formula that seems highly unlikely in terms of practical application.

UNLV is 1-2 in Mountain West play and 2-5 overall with four games to go. By NCAA rule, a team must have a winning record to compete in a bowl game.

In theory, the Rebels could finish 5-2 in the league and 6-5 overall, which would, indeed, make them bowl eligible. But any slip automatically eliminates UNLV from consideration, as would the right set of circumstances as the conference season plays itself out over the next six weeks.

There are 25 bowl games sanctioned by the NCAA this season and three of them have direct ties to the Mountain West. The league's champion is bound to the Liberty Bowl; its runner-up is bound to the Las Vegas Bowl; and its third-place team is bound to the New Orleans Bowl.

Two other bowls, the Humanitarian in Boise and the Silicon Valley in San Jose, have "at-large" bids available. Yet, from UNLV's perspective, it has to figure it needs to finish one, two or three in the MWC to extend its season as it did last year when it finished strong and won its Las Vegas Bowl game.

There are two different issues here: Can UNLV finish 4-0, and, even if it does, will that be good enough to go to a bowl?

Given the Rebels' shabby play this season and loss to Colorado State last week, 4-0 is unlikely at best. Yes, they will beat Wyoming on Saturday in Laramie and probably handle New Mexico Nov. 10 in Albuquerque, but Utah (here Nov. 3) and Air Force (at Colorado Springs Nov. 17) right now appear to be better teams than the Rebels.

UNLV is currently in a three-way tie for fifth in the eight-team MWC and would have to hopscotch past at least three teams to finish third. It almost certainly will not finish ahead of Brigham Young (now 3-0 and 7-0), which appears to be the class team of the league.

Utah (2-0, 5-1) has the toughest remaining schedule in that it still must face fellow contenders CSU, BYU and Air Force (plus UNLV). But the Utes have been playing well of late and from a point-spread point of view will be favored to end the bowl bids of both CSU and UNLV.

For the sake of simplicity, let's eliminate CSU (2-1, 3-4) from bowl consideration in that it isn't playing that well and still has to play Utah, BYU and Air Force.

All of which makes Air Force (2-1, 4-2) a pivotal team as it pertains to the Rebels' bowl chances.

But here's the key: the Falcons, even though they have six games yet to play, have the easiest remaining schedule of the MWC contenders. They have CSU, UNLV and Utah mixed in with New Mexico, Army and Hawaii.

Even if UNLV wins out, the league standings still could finish like this: BYU 6-1; Utah 5-2; Air Force 5-2; and UNLV 5-2, but with fewer overall wins than either the Utes or the Falcons.

So even 4-0 down the stretch may not be good enough.

Munch, munch.