Columnist Jon Ralston: Democrats can throw in towel

Friday, Oct. 19, 2001 | 4:20 a.m.

Just over one year from now the Democrats could be rendered all but irrelevant in statewide politics, clutching to the Assembly as their only jewel and watching Republicans collect all the constitutional gems and score diamonds in the rough who could shine in other races down the road. All of this became clear during the last fortnight as Gov. Kenny Guinn's second anointment began to firm up, and the most valuable commodity the Democrats have possessed in some time and the only one who might possibly have coattails -- Mayor Oscar Goodman -- not only declined to run for the state's highest office, but also cloaked himself in neutrality in a key congressional contest.

For the second consecutive cycle, the Democrats have all but ceded the governorship to Guinn. The party has no one. If Anointer/Meddler-in-Chief Harry Reid, who doubles as the Senate majority whip, can't talk Clark County Commissioner Erin Kenny into the race, he will do what he did in the 2000 Senate race: Find some rich sucker with an ego, promise him the world (a her would be preferable but a deep-pocketed female is harder to find) and then watch him get creamed. I wonder if Ed Bernstein, sold that bill of goods last cycle and who invested seven figures in a quixotic causes, will be on the Reid for Re-Election Committee in '04.

Meanwhile, Democratic special interests are beginning their rollover. The carpenter's union, which has shown political muscle in recent cycles, already is on Team Guinn. "Guinn's Millennium Scholarship plan and Senior Rx programs have also provided valuable assistance to our membership," carpenter's boss Marc Furman said in a release, surely penned not by him but by some Guinnite.

I wonder if Furman could answer the first question about the Millennium Scholarships, such as how many of those students can't make the grade at UNLV? Or on Senior Rx, such as how many seniors have been getting their Rxs? Funny how another union endorsement, the Nevada Conference of Police and Sheriffs, coincidentally was released a few days later, had nearly identical language, citing "Guinn's Millennium Scholarship and Senior Rx programs. ..." Notice a pattern here?

This sham shows how weak the Democratic Party is. It can't even hold on to its traditional special interests. Who's next?

On top of that comes His Honor. In a move that infuriated Rep. Shelley Berkley, who believed Goodman had promised her an endorsement, the mayor declared last week he was neutral in her contest against City Councilwoman Lynette Boggs McDonald.

Some might admire Goodman's refusal to enter the political fray. But his desire to have it both ways shows that the Democrats' golden boy, before he declined to run, now has become political pyrite. Opined one disenchanted Democrat: "Goodman should have flat-out endorsed Berkley, cited a long-standing friendship, party loyalty, blah, blah, blah. He could have made mention that Lynette has been a good councilwoman and he looks forward to continue working with her on the council, but that Shelley is his choice. What a joke the state party has become. When your possible standard-bearer for governor is Erin Kenny, it's no longer funny."

It doesn't get much better down the ticket.

The Democrats have no prospects in the constitutional offices. And if ex-Gaming Commission boss and ex-lawmaker Brian Sandoval wins that race, as seems likely now, he will be a leading candidate to succeed Guinn in '06, well ahead of any Democrats. (No wonder Reid presciently tried to take Sandoval out of the game a few years back by dangling a federal judgeship in front of him.) Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt and Secretary of State Dean Heller, both Republicans, also are heavy favorites and would be well-positioned for higher office.

But not all is lost -- Democratic Assemblyman John Lee is challenging Controller Kathy Augustine for that coveted post. You can really go places from the controller's job.

The Democrats will make a concerted effort to take over the state Senate, but it's still a long shot. And then there's Congress. Berkley remains a favorite. But Boggs McDonald could be a tough candidate, if the national GOP ponies up, and Goodman might have sealed the deal for the incumbent. In the open congressional seat, which might be termed Beauty (Clark County Commissioner Dario Herrera) and the Bland (state Sen. Jon Porter), voters in the post-Sept. 11 world might just lean toward boring.

Yes, it's early. But as Guinn, who began running for governor the first time somewhere around the writing of the state Constitution, proved last cycle, some trends become apparent long before Election Day.