Airlines face growth, security issues

Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2001 | 10:37 a.m.

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. -- McCarran International Airport will be the fifth-busiest airport in the nation by 2006, up from its current No. 7 ranking, an aviation consultant says.

Mike Boyd of the Boyd Group, Evergreen, Colo., said growth in the tourism industry and in the city's business community will drive passenger increases in the next five years that will surpass airports in San Francisco and Denver.

Boyd made the prediction Monday during his company's two-day "Forecast: 2002," which wraps up today. Boyd and several speakers are assessing aviation's future following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the East Coast.

Las Vegas' casino industry is largely driven by the airline industry, since the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority says 43 percent of the city's gamblers arrive by air.

Boyd predicts McCarran will serve 42.5 million passengers in 2006, a 16.6 percent increase from the 36.4 million passengers that used the airport in 2000. Boyd acknowledged that traffic would likely be off this year with traffic dramatically reduced in September after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

But a combination of local traffic growth, slower growth in Denver and an expected decrease in traffic in San Francisco will boost Las Vegas right behind airports in Atlanta, Chicago (O'Hare International), Dallas-Fort Worth and Los Angeles.

Boyd expects traffic to fall at airports that are strongholds for Chicago-based United Airlines -- including O'Hare, Denver and San Francisco. United already has cut staff and routes, and the company's Internet site schedule indicates it is trimming three daily round-trip flights in Las Vegas. United also is doing away with its Shuttle by United brand of high-frequency flights and will replace it with United mainline service.

McCarran's projected 16.6 percent growth rate is the eighth highest among the airports in Boyd's forecast.

Most of the top growth cities in the Boyd forecast are served by discount airlines that weren't hurt as dramatically by the Sept. 11 attacks. The top growth airport forecast by Boyd is at Long Beach, Calif., which is expected to have traffic increase by 48.2 percent. The reason: New York-based JetBlue Airways plans to develop a West Coast hub at Long Beach next year.

Other high-growth airports are served by Southwest Airlines, McCarran's top carrier. They include No. 3 Oakland, No. 5 Baltimore, and No. 6 Phoenix, all big markets for Southwest Airlines.