Is Las Vegas safe?

Friday, Oct. 5, 2001 | 5:03 a.m.

Las Vegas is no more or less vulnerable to a bioterrorist attack than any other major American city.

But to do any damage, terrorists would have to obtain and disperse the dangerous pathogens or chemicals, and those could be daunting tasks.

Local scientists say any damage from the release of deadly spores, viruses or chemicals in the Las Vegas Valley would depend on how and where the terrorists struck, the volume and type of material released, weather conditions and the preparedness of local health officials and rescue personnel.

"A bioterrorist incident is one of those things we don't want to think about, but it is something we cannot ignore," said Sunny Lucia, Clark County Health District's bioterrorism preparedness trainer. "There's absolutely no way to prevent bioterrorism, so we have to rely on preparedness."

Since the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the national media have speculated that Las Vegas is a prime target for terrorism because of its reputation as America's "Sin City." Some residents, such as John Alexander, agree.

Alexander, a retired Army colonel who is a consultant for the government and private sector on defense and intelligence issues, said the city is a potential target because it "stands out as a symbol of both affluence and decadence."

"We're a signature city around the world in movies and on TV," Alexander said. "You don't even have to say you're in Las Vegas because our skyline says it."

But other Southern Nevadans do not believe the area is a target. University Nevada, Las Vegas, assistant criminal justice professor Naranapiti Karunaratne, who studies political terrorism, said bioterrorists likely would pick higher profile cities.

"As far as the Las Vegas Strip is concerned, my opinion is that it is the least likely place for a terrorist incident," he said. "These terrorists are more likely to target places where they can show that the government cannot provide security for significant places, like government installations. Doing something on the Strip does not achieve that objective."

Gaining access to quantities of pathogens large enough to do significant damage can be difficult in the United States because many deadly spores and viruses are secured exclusively in government or other federally funded laboratories. Scientists fear, however, that some harmful pathogens can either be made by terrorists or obtained on the black market through rogue nations, such as Iraq, that have tested biological weapons.

"What a bioterrorist wants in an organism is something that makes people sick and is so virulent that a high percentage of the population is affected," UNLV microbiology professor Penny Amy said.

But some pathogens and chemical agents are more difficult to make than others. Nerve gas is an example of a chemical agent that requires complex laboratory equipment and advanced scientific knowledge, UNLV chemistry professor Steve Carper said. He said the gas can explode without warning.

"You could be in immediate danger of it killing you while you made it," Carper said.

In his book, "Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare," Alexander wrote about a deadly pathogen that could be placed in a micron-sized capsule, dropped in a water reservoir, survive water treatment and implode inside the drinker's body. But he said such technology is costly and difficult to manufacture and believes today's terrorists prefer low-tech methods.

Bioterrorists could actually have the highest percentage of success with an indoor attack. There aren't wind or harsh weather conditions to contend with, and the deadly chemical or pathogen can be released in a confined environment. The most infamous bioterrorist act was an indoor sarin gas attack in 1995 by the Japanese sect Aum Shinrikyo in a Tokyo subway. The attack killed 12 and injured 5,500.

Dale Walsh, an industrial hygienist for Converse Consultants in Las Vegas, said that some building ventilation systems would do a better job diluting a pathogen or chemical agent than others.

"The people closest to the release point would be most likely to die," Walsh said.

But Richard Brenner, a Clark County fire protection engineer, said victims of chemical attacks would likely survive if they can walk away from the scene.

"If a chemical agent was used, you would notice the odor, you would twitch and you would start getting sick," Brenner said. "We advise that people get their clothes off as soon as possible after a chemical attack. We hand out doff-it kits that have ponchos. You put on the poncho and then take your clothes off."

A person wearing a gas mask could survive many chemical agents, such as the sarin, which is a nerve gas. But Mike Myers, coordinator of the local Metropolitan Medical Response System that would treat bioterrorism victims, said it isn't necessary or practical for individuals to keep gas masks with them.

"You would have to be in the area where the chemical was released," Myers said. "If you were in your home, away from the attack, you would be totally safe."

The release of deadly biological or chemical agents outdoors could affect far more people than an indoor attack. But the chances of success are smaller because there are more hurdles for a bioterrorist to clear outdoors. Drinking water is a case in point.

Safe supplies

Southern Nevada Water Authority officials have said local drinking supplies are safe and that Lake Mead would be virtually impossible to contaminate because it is so large it would likely dilute any deadly agent. Spokesman Vince Alberta said the valley's 30 enclosed treated-water reservoirs -- six above ground and 24 below -- are also safe from potential terrorism and are patrolled regularly.

Although it is possible for a terrorist to release contaminants into a groundwater well, it is highly unlikely an aquifer would be tainted to the point where it would produce unsafe drinking water, Alberta said.

"We use aquifers only in the summer, and things move through aquifers very slowly because of the caliche and clay," he said. "Because we test the wells we would have plenty of time to identify problems."

An airborne bioterrorist attack would be virtually impossible to prevent, but a perpetrator hoping for massive destruction would face major barriers. One is finding a way to release harmful biological or chemical agents into the air in large enough quantities to cause widespread damage.

Crop dusters

There has been concern about the use of crop dusters to release deadly agents into the air. Nevada has four crop-dusting airplanes, all in the northern half of the state and privately owned.

Crop-duster Mike Morris of Orovada in Humboldt County said neither he nor the other Nevada operators would ever let someone else use their aircraft.

"Because they cost $100,000 to $500,000, you're not just going to let anyone fly one," Morris said.

Even if terrorists got their hands on the single-seat aircraft, the planes are difficult to fly and easy to shoot down, Morris said. Pilots also get optimal use of the aircraft by swooping down as low as 4 feet over crops, so precision flying is practically a must, he said.

"They're tail draggers, and they're squirrelly to get off the ground," Morris said of the planes. "You can't just use a simulator and then fly one.

Another barrier to an outdoor attack is the climate. There is consensus among scientists and the U.S. military that the bacterial disease known as anthrax is the nation's No. 1 outdoor biological threat. That is true locally because the spore can survive the valley's heat, ultraviolet sun rays, dry air and wind conditions long enough to be inhaled, Amy said.

Anthrax, which attacks the respiratory system, would be deadly far longer after it was released than most pathogens. There is no way to detect anthrax when it is sprayed: It is odorless, colorless and tasteless.

There is an effective short-term vaccine for anthrax that can protect a human from getting the disease. But the vaccine is currently available only to the military and to certain civilians exposed to the spore while at work. Antibiotics are also available to people who have ingested anthrax, but to increase their survival chances they would have to take the medicine before the flu-like symptoms surface. Those symptoms normally occur one to six days after exposure.

Bioterrorism expert Donald Henderson of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore told Congress a week before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks that roughly 200 pounds of anthrax released upwind of a large American city could cause between 130,000 and 3 million deaths.

"This degree of carnage is in the same range as that forecast for a hydrogen bomb," he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "Although there is a legitimate concern as well about the possible use of chemical weapons, they are far less effective pound for pound and extremely difficult to deploy over large areas. Ten grams of anthrax can produce as many casualties as a ton of a chemical nerve agent."

Anthrax is most commonly found in farm animals. Humans can become infected by eating contaminated meat from a diseased animal. But Amy said bioterrorists with backgrounds in animal science and microbiology could extract the anthrax culture from a diseased animal and "grow huge vats of it with nutrients you can get from a grocery store." Anthrax can be made at home in liquid or powder form with simple laboratory equipment. A gas mask would probably be the only protection needed.

State veterinarian David Thain said one of the biggest problems facing bioterrorists would be finding diseased animals.

Rare outbreaks

In the United States, anthrax outbreaks are rare and kill only 200 to 300 animals a year, he said. Nevada had one of the nation's largest outbreaks last year when 102 head of cattle were killed near Reno and Gerlach. That was the state's first outbreak in nearly 10 years, Thain said.

"It's a localized problem, so a terrorist would have to know about a ranch that was affected," Thain said.

There were only 18 reported cases of inhaled anthrax in humans in the United States in the 20th century, the latest in 1976. The case reported last week in Florida involving a 63-year-old man, a known outdoorsman who may have been in contact with animals, is still being investigated. However, government officials were quick to point out it was an isolated case and not caused by terrorism.

Because anthrax causes the most harm by attacking the respiratory system, it would have to be made into microbes the size of spray that comes from an aerosol can. But there is no guarantee crop dusters or any other airplanes could effectively deliver spray that small. There also is no way to predict how much damage anthrax would do if it was simply dumped from an airplane or from the rooftop of a tall building.

An advantage for terrorists in regard to viruses is that they can be passed from one person to another, whereas anthrax, the bacterial infection, is not communicable. In any case, the victims may not know immediately that they have been affected.

The United States and Russia are the only countries known to have stockpiled strains of smallpox. The United States has kept its strains in the event it needs to produce additional vaccines, although American scientists have called on the government to destroy the stockpile.

The greater fear is whether Russia has maintained complete security over its smallpox stockpile, said spokesman Tim Parsons of the Center For Civilian Biodefense Studies at Johns Hopkins. Russia was believed to have tested many pathogens for use in biological warfare.

Security worries

"In Russia they may have some bomb casings sitting in a shed in Siberia that may be contaminated with the virus," Parsons said.

Viruses and other deadly agents would not be as effective as anthrax if released outdoors in the valley, local scientists say. Smallpox and other viruses such as ebola and encephalitis are more susceptible to heat, sun rays and dry air. They could also be diluted in windy conditions.

"If you released something into a high wind you would have lower concentrations because it would be released into a greater volume of air," David James, chairman of UNLV's Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, said. "You could also have a lot of vertical mixing that could dilute the material. It's very hard to make aerosols that could survive wind.

"Along the Strip there are a lot of buildings, and that creates what we call aerodynamic roughness because they break up the wind. That produces mixing that can also reduce concentrations of the material."

Strip hotels have increased security since the Sept. 11 attacks. MGM MIRAGE spokesman Alan Feldman said the three prior events he could recall that caused local resorts to become more vigilant were the Persian Gulf War in 1991, the first World Trade Center explosion in 1993 and the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City in 1995.

"Security officers are present at every entrance and exit, both vehicular and pedestrian, and we X-ray all incoming and outgoing mail," Feldman said. "We also have a prevention program in place that I am not at liberty to discuss.

"By and large, the mood in the casinos is strong and in some cases defiant," he said of the hotel guests. "There are a couple of people who have acknowledged that they had some concerns about coming to Las Vegas, but once they got here they have felt secure and comfortable."

The front-line defense for a bioterrorist attack locally is the Metropolitan Medical Response System, a network of hospitals, public health workers, law enforcement and rescue personnel. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson told CBS' "60 Minutes" last week that the federal government has eight regional staging areas, each prepared to move 50 tons of medical supplies to communities that have been attacked.

But the General Accounting Office reported last month that the nation remains ill-trained for bioterrorism and that hospitals do not have the capacity to treat massive numbers of victims. Sen. Bill Frist, R-Tenn., a surgeon, told the Associated Press that the nation should be spending $1 billion annually on bioterrorism initiatives, about triple what has been allocated this year.

For instance, there currently are enough doses of the anthrax antibiotic to treat only 2 million Americans, and there are only 15.4 million doses of the smallpox vaccine, Thompson said.

Dr. Donald Kwalick, Clark County's chief medical officer, said that many local physicians would not even be able to recognize an anthrax outbreak or a virus such as smallpox, which has not been found in a human since the 1970s.

"Depending on the kind of bioterrorist attack that occurs we may not know about it until a couple weeks after the organism is introduced," Kwalick said. Increased vigilance

"But we're as safe as any place can be safe in these times. The best thing we can do is to have increased vigilance in what we do and not let the bastards get us down. It's not an easy thing to mount a bioterrorist attack."

With the help of federal grants, local rescue and health workers are purchasing monitoring equipment to respond to bioterrorist attacks. The health district also is training more than 2,200 local medical professionals on how to recognize pathogens that may be used by terrorists.

Myers said that in the event of an attack, plans exist to transport patients to other cities if enough hospital beds aren't available locally. School gymnasiums and other large buildings also would be used to treat victims who are injured but don't require hospitalization.

"The hospitals here have enough beds to maintain daily activities, and there are emergency plans to expand slightly for disasters like airplane accidents and hotel fires that could generate a couple of hundred patients," Myers said. "But common sense tells us there are not enough hospital beds to handle thousands of people. That's why we'll have to have alternative care sites in large areas."

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