LV unemployment estimated at 7 percent-plus

David Strow

Wednesday, Oct. 3, 2001 | 9:29 a.m.

Unemployment in the Las Vegas metro area has probably topped 7 percent, the highest level in seven years, a local economist said Tuesday.

"We're talking about 12,000 to 15,000 (laid off on the Strip)," said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV. "And there are other businesses that may have felt the downturn. It wouldn't be out of the question that the unemployment rate is now at 7 percent. There are pretty strong indications things have really slowed down."

In August, unemployment stood at 5.1 percent in the Las Vegas area, according to the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Unemployment has not reached the 7 percent level here since June 1994.

Economic figures for September are not yet available. Prior to the Sept. 11 attacks, gaming revenues in the area were growing at about 3 percent, while employment was increasing by about the same rate, Schwer said. Both are key measures for tracking the performance of the Southern Nevada economy.

Though the formal definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic shrinkage, "it's safe to say we are now in a recession locally," Schwer said.

The Las Vegas tourism economy probably isn't the hardest hit in the country, Schwer said. While Las Vegas can draw visitors by automobile as well as air, a market like Honolulu is totally dependent on air travel.

"Honolulu's tourism economy may well be hurt more than Nevada, but the Nevada tourism economy is a bigger component of our economy than Hawaii," Schwer said.

The two crucial factors that will determine when Las Vegas will emerge from this economic slump are the national economy and travel safety, Schwer said.

"We sell travel and tourism around the world, and their economic condition affects the decisions they'll make," Schwer said. "With safety issues, that's much more dependent on perceptions and events as they transpire. By all accounts, there's greater uncertainty today."