Columnist Jeff Haney: Football contestant makes run for the money

Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2001 | 10:50 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

Pro football handicapper Tobin Hensgen likens the Las Vegas Hilton's annual "SuperContest" to a 15-round prizefight.

With any luck, when the final bell sounds, Hensgen will not be among those bruised and battered contest entrants muttering, "I coulda been a contenda."

After 11 weeks, Hensgen is hitting 61 percent winners in the Hilton contest, which drew 226 players this year and pays the top 20 places. First prize figures to be around $130,000.

Before going 4-1 this past weekend, Hensgen was tied for 29th place. He will likely move up a few spots when the standings are updated this week.

Historically, a winning percentage of 60 percent has been good enough to finish in the money in the Hilton contest, which requires entrants to pick five NFL games against the spread each week.

"The next few weeks are as crucial as they are tough," Hensgen said. "There are indications that some teams may have been 'broken' and just want the season to finish. Other teams, in must-win situations, have blown realisic chances at the playoffs and you can't really tell how they will play from here on out."

In the closing rounds of big contests like the Hilton's, leaders take one of two legitimate approaches: 1) try to outmaneuver fellow contenders by guessing their plays and then going in a different, or opposite, direction in an effort to gain ground; or 2) do your own thing and let the chips fall where they may.

Include Hensgen in the second camp.

To paraphrase Peter Fonda in "Easy Rider," he's just concerned about getting his own thing together. Man.

"Any attempt to outwit the current leaders by anticipating which games they might choose would drive to defeat any rational approach to handicapping," Hensgen said. "Consider a bucket containing 14 tennis balls, seven yellow and seven white. The yellow represent point spread winners, the white losers. You are asked to select five yellow from the 14.

"If you voluntarily eliminate some of the yellow because you're anticipating how your competition will draw, you've increased the odds that your subsequent selections will be white."

Hensgen, who posts picks and other info online at thegame-nfl.com, cited an adage from the business world: It's not enough that you succeed, but someone else must fail.

"That obviously applies to this contest," he said. "If everyone finishes out at 3-2 (each week) the standings stay where they are, (so) 4s and 5s become extremely important here. ... In the meantime, 'theGAME' handicaps for the best values of the week but (also) pays attention to the contestants just behind and the contestants just in front once the plays are posted."

Even so, Tulsa joins a hall of shame of worst against-the-spread performers.

According to Bruce Marshall of the Gold Sheet, last year's Louisiana-Monroe squad went 0-7-1 against line, and the 1980 Oregon State team achieved a dubious daily double of sorts, going winless against the spread (0-7-2) and straight up (0-11).

Among other big money burners, according to Marshall, were: 1995 Indiana (1-10 ATS), 1990 Georgia (1-10), 1994 Houston (1-9), 1978 Northwestern (1-9-1), 1992 Temple (1-9), 1983 Stanford (1-8-1), 1978 West Virginia (1-8-1), 1987 Ole Miss (1-8-1) and 1987 Kansas (1-7). ...

How high will they go? Oddsmakers could set a record when they create an over/under number on next week's Hawaii-BYU game (Dec. 8).

The posted totals on BYU's games this year have ranged from 64 (nearly as high as they get) to 54 (still lofty). Actual final scores in the Cougars' games have clocked in as high as 105 (vs. Tulane), 96 (vs. Air Force) and 90 (vs. Colorado State).

Hawaii's over/under numbers have ranged from 68 (!) to 54. The last two Rainbow games have yielded actual total scores of 103 (vs. Miami of Ohio) and 82 (vs. Air Force).

BYU's offense ranks first among 115 Division I-A teams, while Hawaii's is eighth.

An over/under in the 70s, anyone?

This, unlike a prop asking who will win an MVP award, is they type of wager Las Vegas sports books can, and perhaps should, offer.

Other unique props from Intertops: Who will sign Jason Giambi -- Yankees (4-5), Cardinals (6-5), A's (2-1), field/all others (10-1) or Mets (12-1).

And, who will sign Barry Bonds -- Giants (6-5), Mets (3-2), Mariners (5-2), Yankees (4-1), Braves (5-1), Dodgers (10-1) or field/all others (12-1).

In this week's matchup, Bob Donahue of Vegas Insider meets author and math expert Mike Orkin, creator of "The Optimizer" handicapping software program. Festivities get under way at 9 p.m. Friday in the Stardust race and sports book.