Guinn part of GOP governors meeting

Erin Neff

Monday, Nov. 12, 2001 | 9:32 a.m.

Other major news events in the past decade may have had little effect on state voters, but the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 could change the thrust of 36 gubernatorial races next year, including Nevada's, consultants told Republican governors gathered in Las Vegas.

The GOP consultants told the 16 governors gathered for the Republican Governors Association meeting at the MGM Grand on Saturday that no one can predict what impact the attacks will have on the races. However, the experts expect state executives who show tough leadership to have the edge in an uncertain political world.

"It's important to be governor, and it's important to do the job of governor," said Russ Schriefer, founding partner of government affairs firm the Stevens and Schriefer Group. "The campaign will engage at its own pace, but fighting for relevance and news space will be very difficult."

Bill McInturff, co-founder of polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, said four recent events that were projected to sway elections had no impact.

Consultants had predicted that Democrats who voted against the Gulf War in 1989 would see their action come back to haunt them. It didn't happen, McInturff said.

The 1993 NAFTA vote, the Columbine school shooting's effect on gun laws and the 1999 impeachment of President Bill Clinton also had no lasting impact.

"Four events that people at the time said were going to totally change politics forever, didn't," McInturff said.

But Sept. 11 has placed the issues of homeland security, foreign policy and the economy back on the map.

"It's important when you're governor to be governor, because the buck stops with you," said Michael Murphy, senior partner of the media consulting group the Murphy Pintak Gautier Hudome Agency.

Although the consultants spoke generically to the governors, Nevada's chief executive Kenny Guinn picked up some pointers for next year's election.

Murphy said that while a bad economy typically hurts the incumbent, governors who make tough decisions and explain them properly will win.

"People are rallying to the fact that the country is under attack and we all have to make sacrifices," said Murphy, a frequent guest on CNN's Crossfire.

A shortfall in Nevada's budget will likely require serious cuts and a push for new taxes. But if the state's leader is seen as having the guts to make tough decisions, gritty leadership could propel him into re-election, the consultant said.

"Don't underestimate the power of toughness," Murphy said.

McInturff said his polling tells him Americans are concerned about security and the economy.

"They either see the governor in the middle of the issues they care about, or they see him on the sidelines," McInturff said.

Schriefer added: "People look to governors as leaders. People will remember whether someone led."

The partisan consultants did admit their party's recent setbacks. Republican candidates lost governor's races in both Virginia and New Jersey on Nov. 6. But they also pointed to President Bush's popularity and to the nation's support of leaders at this time.

Guinn and the leaders of sparsely populated states like Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Kansas listened attentively to the consultants, but didn't glean much advice from their talk of winning big states like California, Texas, New York and Florida in 2002.

When Guinn asked if the panelists had any advice for "big states like Nevada and Idaho," he reminded them of Nevada's critical four electoral votes that went to George Bush in 2000's razor thin election.

"We are a marquee state," Guinn joked.

Questions from governors for the panelists were rare in the abbreviated hourlong session that was scheduled for 90 minutes. But the consultants offered some prognostications.

Schriefer said federal elections in 2002 will again be a battle for the middle, as hard-line conservatives and liberals alike are dwindling.

McInturff suggested the ongoing war against terrorists will thrust a "Stop the War" candidate to victory in the 2004 presidential primary in New Hampshire.