Columnist Jon Ralston: Poll dashes hopes of Democrats

Friday, Nov. 2, 2001 | 4:59 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the public affairs program "Face to Face" on Las Vegas ONE and also publishes the Ralston Report. His column for the Sun appears on Sundays and Wednesdays. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or by e-mail at ralston@vegas.com

AS THE DEMOCRATS commence The Hunt For the Rich Sucker, with their periscope now focused on ex-Mirage Resorts executive Dan Lee, a Republican poll completed last month contains little reason why the party shouldn't just take a dive in the governor's race.

The Democrats' hopes are submerged not just because Mayor Oscar Goodman and Clark County Commissioner Erin Kenny have decided to take the safe course to keeping their political careers afloat. But Gov. Kenny Guinn looks like a candidate-destroyer, armed with money, special interests' anointing fluid and even union support.

Is this election really necessary? Luckily, it's not an important office, so it's understandable and hardly distressing that this would be a fait accompli.

Guinn has a robust approval rating, with 62 percent of the public thinking well of him and 17 percent not so well in the survey completed late last month by national GOP pollster Glen Bolger. The poll of 500 registered voters was paid for by the state GOP and has just over a 4 percent margin of error. (Democrats, please save your mewling about this being a Republican survey for some other poll. No one has been more accurate than Bolger during the last few cycles in forecasting Nevada election results. So spare me your plaints.)

If you want to put Guinn's numbers in context, consider these comparisons: President George W. Bush has an 81-13 ratio, which reflects other polls around the country. Guinn's numbers are similar, though, to Senate Majority Whip Harry Reid (63-21) and Sen. John Ensign (67-15). And they all look pretty strong, which may also reflect public confidence in incumbents during these trying times. The survey also found high marks for the governor so far in handling the post-Sept. 11 aftershocks, with respondents by large margins crediting him for his performance and preparing the state for terrorism.

But Bolger also found fretfulness about the Nevada economy with only 11 percent saying they think it is getting better and 38 percent saying it is worsening (the rest had no opinion or indicated they thought it was about the same). That compares with 24 percent a few months ago thinking the economy was getting better and only 19 percent believing it is getting worse.

If people are worried, that could help a challenger. But can anyone, even someone with deep pockets, run a fear-mongering campaign about the economy and win? That's one question those being wooed, including Lee, will have to answer.

The other question is this: Do the Democrats just cede the governorship to Guinn, thereby assuring his grass-roots organization remains dormant but allowing him to avoid debating any issues; or do they put up a moneyed contender who forces the governor to go all-out, thus potentially revving up GOP turnout and hurting other Democrats down the ticket? It's not an easy question to answer. But it's one the Democrats will have to come to terms with as they continue to turn their periscope toward November 2002 and see a disastrous tidal wave coming toward them.

Poll results addenda: Bolger also surveyed the two competitive congressional districts and found one competitive and one not even close. Neither result is surprising one year out -- the question is whether either will change before November 2002.

In the contest for the new district, Bolger found Clark County Commissioner Dario Herrera at 40 percent, state Sen. Jon Porter at 39 percent and the rest undecided. That is almost unchanged from an earlier survey and shows how close this contest is in a district with two relatively unknown candidates and almost equal in partisan registration.

Herrera is only known by 64 percent of the district's voters and Porter by only 59 percent. And of those that do know them, about a quarter don't have an opinion, the poll indicated, although Herrera has twice the negatives that Porter does, albeit they are still negligible. Twenty-nine percent think highly of Herrera while 11 percent have an unfavorable view of him. Porter's numbers (26-5) show that his nice guy persona has seeped into a relatively small portion of the electorate.

What does this mean? That the campaigns and the candidate performances will be determinative here more than in most races because a large majority of the electorate does not know much about them.

In the other district, the numbers were not available late last week. But Bolger found, not surprisingly, that Rep. Shelley Berkley is crushing Las Vegas City Councilwoman Lynette Boggs McDonald by a double landslide margin. Why? It's a Democratic district and no one knows Boggs McDonald. If she gets the money, she has a chance to turn it around. But if not, Berkley's overflowing war chest will overwhelm her.