Columnist Jeff Haney: Final Four betting attracts value seekers

Wednesday, March 28, 2001 | 9:02 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 250-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

Spend enough time around sharp horseplayers, and you'll learn an old racing truth that comes across like a paradox: When you bet a horse to win, you usually think he's going to lose.

Say a horse is a 10-1 shot, but you determine he would win this particular race one in five times.

That's a good bet -- even though you believe you'll be backing a loser 80 percent of the time.

It's called an overlay.

If your handicapping skills are strong enough, you'll make money at the game.

So went the thinking of college basketball bettors who decided to take a piece of one of the longer shots on the board in the NCAA men's basketball tournament this week.

Take Michigan State, available at as high as 9-2 to win the tournament. The defending champion looked like a bit of an overlay -- especially considering the Spartans actually opened a 1-point favorite in Saturday's game against Arizona, a 5-2 shot.

Even if you do not make an outright prediction that Michigan State will win the tournament, you might like that 9-2.

A couple of factors went into the slightly inflated number, a local oddsmaker explained.

"For one thing, the betting has been leaning toward Michigan State (Saturday), and they're now a slight underdog to Arizona," said Jeff Sherman, sports book supervisor at the Regent Las Vegas. "Then you have to compound that with the fact that they would be a bigger underdog against Duke (a 5-point favorite against Maryland) in the championship."

Make a theoretical money-line parlay of those two games, and the number would fall somewhere close to -- though not quite -- 4-1, Sherman pointed out.

A second factor is more intriguing to value-seeking bettors, and it involves a balancing act in the future book.

"We already had a lot of money on Arizona in the futures book, and no money on Michigan State futures," Sherman said. "That means we can afford to sell some Michigan State at a good price."

Tuesday, the Regent had Michigan State at 4-1, Maryland 7-2, heavily bet Arizona 5-2 and Duke even money.

The Stardust, perhaps even lighter on Michigan State futures, had the Spartans at 9-2 this week. The Stardust opened Michigan State a 1-point favorite in Saturday's game, though the line has moved to Arizona minus 1.

The Mirage and related properties have Maryland at an attractive 9-2, but are evidently heavy on Duke, which they list at minus 120.

Arizona loyalists should consider the Las Vegas Club, where the Wildcats are 7-2.

Not so good for the books was Michigan State's 7-point win over Temple, which fell right around the number on the total as well as the sides.

"We got middled on that one," Sherman said. "Michigan State opened at 6 and was bet to 7 1/2, and the total went from 132 to 130. It fell 131 and 7, which were the precise numbers we did not want."

According to odds at Mirage properties, UConn is 6-5 to win the tourney followed by Notre Dame at 7-5. The teams in the other national semifinal, Southwest Missouri State and Purdue, check in at 4-1 and 8-1 respectively.

In last year's inaugural event, more than 20 race and sports book directors from throughout Nevada participated in the basketball free-throw shooting contest.

More than $2,000 was raised for Child Haven, the charity of last year's winner, Danny Hubley of the Golden Nugget.

"I have never seen so many race and sports book directors in one place at the same time," Hubley said. "To end up winning and being able to pick Child Haven as the charity to receive the money meant a great deal to me."

Among those scheduled to participate in this year's contest, which figures to be even bigger: Joe Lupo (Stardust), Fred Crespi (Sunset Station), Jay Kornegay (Imperial Palace), Art Manteris (Las Vegas Hilton), Bert Osborne (Gold Coast) and Hubley.

The Charity Stripe Shootout features a head-to-head, single-elimination format, and the contest's winner designates which charity the money is donated to. Each sports book director's establishment kicks in $100 to the charity pool.

Radio personality Larry Grossman, host of "You Can Bet On It," will serve as master of ceremonies. The event will air live on SportsRadio 1460-AM as part of the Clubhouse show with Dave Cokin and Seat Williams.