Columnist Ron Kantowski: Phoenix can’t beat the odds

Thursday, July 5, 2001 | 10:31 a.m.

Ron Kantowski's column appears Thursday. Reach him at ron@lasvegassun.com or 259-4088.

Regardless of what our honorable mayor believes, Las Vegas is still about five years away from having everything -- namely, an arena and enough fans to consistently fill one -- in place for a major league sports franchise.

But once it arrives, it's no dead-bolt cinch to succeed here. In fact, the odds may be against it, if you use Phoenix, our first cousin in heat, as a template.

With 3.3 million air-conditioned residents, Phoenix is roughly three times as large as Las Vegas, and has four times as many major league teams. But none, according to a report in the Arizona Republic last weekend, is considered successful from a bottom-line standpoint.

"Every market has its problems, but Phoenix is as screwed up as any," said David M. Carter, founder of The Sports Business Group.

When it comes to supporting its teams, the Valley of the Sun(s) is struggling like a '74 Chevette on Camelback Mountain. The Republic says that in addition to all those pro sports, people who live in Phoenix also can choose to spend their discretionary dollars on a major university (I guess Arizona State still qualifies), the WNBA, Arena football, Cactus League baseball, auto racing and golf tour stops, horse and dog racing, a plethora of golf courses and the great outdoors.

We've got most of those options, too, and dozens more that Phoenix doesn't offer. Watching guys with No. 84 on their backs shag fly balls during spring training may be a diversion for some, but you don't need a program to identify Siegfried and Roy. And I defy you to find a 75-cent Corona in Scottsdale. Or even in Apache Junction, for that matter.

One of the theories for Phoenix plummeting closer to the ashes as a sports town is that its teams perform in the manner of a well-oiled Hoover. The Suns made their baptism in 1968, yet in all those years, Phoenix has never had a champion.

Ironically, the team that may be closest, the Diamondbacks, are reeling the hardest. On most nights, you could fire a cannon in Bank One Ballpark and the only ones who would hear it are the ballplayers and the greyhounds down at Phoenix Greyhound Park.

All those empty seats are not a good omen for a team that has bumped its payroll from $32 million to $86 million in just three years.

The scary thing is that the Diamondbacks are winning and nobody cares. If and when Las Vegas gets a major league team, it'll probably be an expansion franchise or somebody like the Clippers. The novelty will wear off faster than the shock one receives from shaking hands with a stranger at the Shriner's convention.

The one exception might be pro football, whose short season (eight regular season home games) is tailor-made for Las Vegas' event-town mentality. But to paraphrase Jerry Glanville in that old soundbite, when it comes to Las Vegas, NFL stands for Not For Long. The idea is moot as long as the stodgy NFL heirarchy maintains its rigid opposition to legalized gambling in our sports books.

So although starry-eyed public officials might have you believe otherwise, when it comes to major league sports in Las Vegas, it's still not time to hold your breath.

Unless you've got lungs like a Navy Seal.