Who pulled the plug on the Golden State’s boom?

Saturday, Jan. 20, 2001 | 10:38 a.m.

These days, an energy crisis has lawmakers by the throats, high-tech has lowered its expectations and millions in dot-wrong stock options would serve better as fuel to dispel the chill of rolling blackouts.

There's some California screaming going on these winter days.

"We seem to be falling apart," says Kathy Sica, a 32-year-old psychotherapist from Santa Monica. "I don't have a theory on it, but it certainly is frightening. It's kind of like a horror flick from the '50s."

"It's almost like it snuck up on everybody," says Nancy Chan, who works at the San Francisco Zoo, which scrambled to keep its animals safe and warm this week when a blackout sent temperatures in a tropical fish pool plunging and locked hydraulic doors, keeping the gorillas from their morning walk.

Seeing the elegant Golden Gate Bridge go partially dark may strike a somber note, but no one's writing eulogies for the California economy - sixth-largest in the world - just yet. Unemployment rates are low, 1.3 percent in Silicon Valley, and job growth increased slightly in the last three months of 2000, said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.

"There have been no tangible signs yet of a slowdown," says Levy, who describes the energy crisis as an "old-fashioned, garden-variety negotiation over price," and doesn't expect it to have much impact on the economy - provided state officials and suppliers can reach agreement quickly.

Still, there have been some measurable reversals in California's fortunes:

- The tech-dominated Nasdaq hit a record close of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, but ended up with a 39.3 percent loss for the calendar year.

- Venture capital that flowed into dot-com companies whether they showed a profit or not dried up somewhat, sending unprofitable e-tailers like Pets.com and Productopia.com tumbling.

- Deregulation, limited supplies of hydroelectric power and maintenance projects created an energy mess that has sent blackouts rolling through Northern California and threatened the entire state.

The mood has turned similarly dark. An early January poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found 51 percent of respondents expected good times for the next 12 months, a 21-point drop from a similar survey last August. The January poll found 82 percent of the 2,000 people surveyed thought the energy crunch would hurt the economy.

"People don't like surprises," says Mark Baldassare, senior fellow at the institute. "It has changed the mood from one of exuberance to one of great caution about what lies ahead."

Even when times are good, "there's always a certain anxiety people feel that this is just too good to last," says Arthur Asa Berger, a San Francisco State University professor who follows popular culture and mass media.

"When something fundamental goes wrong all of a sudden, we realize a lot of the things we take for granted aren't always going to be like that," Berger adds.

Some Californians, however, are used to bouncing back and are shrugging off the latest set of troubles to hit their land of earthquake, fire and flood.

"We'll always make do," says David Ross, a 47-year-old Los Angeles architect.

"I think it's a bunch of hype. I don't think it's as bad as everybody thinks," says Mark Varney, 33-year-old manager of a technical recruiting firm in Culver City. "Every time you ride high there has to be a crash, it's only natural."

In Northern California, where the reality of being in the dark is striking home, Fara Pakzad, owner of the Berkeley Lighting Company, is keeping his stock turned off and focusing on suddenly popular low-energy fluorescent light bulbs.

"We're diversifying," he says.

He isn't sure where the economy is going, but notes that sales have been up every month for the past three years - except last month.

Steve Summers of Pasadena was among the dot-gone last year, laid off from his job in quality assurance at a Southern California dot-com four days before Christmas.

But like many in the high-tech market, he found he was eminently rehirable, in his case by the same company that let him go. Now, Summers, 47, is making regular pay plus severance pay and things are good. Still, he's not entirely sanguine.

"Overall, it's probably looking pretty bad especially for poor people and people who work for dot-coms," he says. "I think we're probably in for a rough ride for a little while."