Israeli official: Bush needs Middle East policy

Friday, Feb. 2, 2001 | 11:06 a.m.

Unless President Bush sets a Middle East policy soon, the Arab world may view his silence as a sign of America's weakening support for Israel, says Israel's senior representative to the southwestern United States.

Yuval Rotem, the Consul General for Israel in Los Angeles, speaking to the Sun's editorial board Thursday, said that could pose "a big problem" for the Jewish state.

Rotem also said that while hard-line Israel opposition leader Ariel Sharon may become prime minister-elect, he might not gain the support needed to form an effective government and as a result may never serve that post.

The George W. Bush administration has made no overtures toward Israel -- perhaps to avoid the impression the United States is meddling in Israel's elections. But Rotem said that will have to change soon after the election.

"They (Palestinians and other Arabs) read into things different than us," he said. "If this administration does not form a policy toward the region -- tell Iran and Iraq you will not play a role in the conflict -- we would have a big problem.

"The danger of writing off the Middle East is that you wake up one morning and Kuwait is taken over again," Rotem said, referring to Iraq invading the small neighboring nation, sparking the Persian Gulf War in the early 1990s.

One concern, Rotem said, is that the Bush administration -- or any Republican leaders -- will cozy up to the Arabs for their oil or for ideological reasons, further adding to speculation among the Arabs that U.S. support for Israel is wavering.

Mehran Tamadonfar, a professor of political science at UNLV and an expert in the Middle East, said Rotem's assessment is on the money, based on what he has read in Arab newspapers.

"The Arabs are very excited about the Republicans in the White House," the Iranian-born Tamadonfar said. "There is a certain degree of optimism that the Republicans have a propensity toward the Arab world. The future is not good from Israel's view, the Arabs believe."

Amid such intrigue is an Israeli election filled with much turmoil.

"Ariel Sharon will be the next prime minister elect, but that could create an unexpected sort of outcome," Rotem said. He noted that if Sharon cannot drum up enough support among the different parties before the end of March, he could face a general election against a member of his own Likud Party, possibly former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Embattled Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who in 1999 handily beat Netanyahu but fell out of favor for making what hard-liners say were too many concessions to the Palestinians, is trailing significantly in the polls for next week's elections.

The failed peace efforts of Labor Party candidate Barak have led to four months of violence and several hundred deaths on the Israeli occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip.

As a result, there has been a groundswell of support for the right wing Likud Party and Sharon, a former soldier who led Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and is viewed by Arabs as everything from an extremest to a butcher.

"The best option will be for the two major parties to focus on uniting in this time of crisis," said Rotem, a professional diplomat who does not serve at the pleasure of the ruling party.

He indicated a more moderate leader could be selected from a united effort -- perhaps someone who is not even on next week's ballot.

Tamadonfar says the election of Sharon will create even more tension on the strained efforts for peace with the Arabs.

"If you read the Saudi (Arabian) newspapers, the question arises that if the Israelis are the peace-loving people they say they are, why would they pick him (Sharon) as their leader?" Tamadonfar said. "Does it send the message that Israel really wants peace with the Arabs?"

Rotem and Tamadonfar agree that peace is best for both peoples, but getting there won't be easy.

"There is not really much room for optimism," Rotem said, noting that, "if there is just a 1 percent chance for peace it is worth seeking."

Tamadonfar says, "one has to be a guarded pessimist" when talking of peace in the Middle East.