Nevada leads growth for 15th straight year

By Timothy Pratt

Friday, Dec. 28, 2001 | 9:41 a.m.

For the 15th consecutive year, Nevada led the nation in growth and topped a population milestone, a U.S. Census Bureau report released today says.

But analysts differ as to what the growth means -- and whether it will continue.

The report said that Nevada's population grew an estimated 5.4 percent, or 107,817 residents, from April 2000 to July 2001 -- putting Nevada above the 2 million mark for the first time.

The rate of growth placed Nevada ahead of Arizona, which grew an estimated 3.4 percent, and Colorado, which grew 2.7 percent.

The report is based on estimates that factor in Census 2000 figures plus other data such as births and deaths and information from the Internal Revenue Service.

But one thing the report didn't take into account is Sept. 11 and the generalized economic downturn facing Nevada and the nation.

"This is an important thing to note here," said Jeff Hardcastle, Nevada state demographer. "Even if the recession had already begun in June or July, as some say, this report wouldn't reflect those developments."

Hardcastle said the Census report brought good news about the past year, but that the future has a lot of new variables to consider.

The variables include whether the state will be able to attract new industries to diversify its economy, whether Americans will change their spending habits and travel less and whether businesses will depend more on such technologies as video conferences and less on conventions.

The demographer also said that the state's small population until now has meant that increases in numbers of residents have produced jumps in percentages, but that the larger the population gets, the less such increases will be reflected in high percentages.

"Being the first in growth for so long is kind of like being in a horse race," Hardcastle said.

"You can look at these 15 years as 15 laps -- but will we continue to lead the pack? Not necessarily."

Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas said he thinks growth won't achieve the same levels next year.

"I think we'll be closer to 4 percent," he said.

The economist also pointed to the timing of the Census Bureau report.

"After Sept. 11, we've seen the fragility of depending on one industry," he said, referring to the loss of some 15,000 jobs in the tourism sector in recent months.

"It seems like a good time to look at how we seem to be outgrowing our supply line here in Nevada -- after a long period of significant growth."

Schwer said that factors such as the spread of legalized gambling in other states and the onset of the recession both may affect Nevada's economy in the future.

"Industries have their boom and bust cycles. And people tend to wait too long to respond to the end of a growth cycle," he said.

Phil Rosenquist, assistant director of the Clark County Comprehensive Planning Department, is optimistic about future growth. As evidence, he notes that there has been no decline in building permits in Clark County since Sept. 11.

"Plus, if you look at past recessions such as 1990, you see that growth here in Las Vegas didn't slow considerably even when the rest of the nation was affected," he said.

The Census report means Southern Nevada, where most of the state's growth occurs, must face certain challenges, Rosenquist said.

"We're going to be dealing with air quality, land supply and environmental issues such as conserving species habitat," said Rosenquist.