Flu season has slow start, but threat is not over yet

Friday, Dec. 28, 2001 | 9:58 a.m.

The flu season appears to be off to a slow start both nationwide and in the Las Vegas Valley, but health officials warn the number of cases could make a drastic jump in the coming months.

The Clark County Health District's influenza surveillance program tracks cases of the illness confirmed by laboratory testing, and reports of flu-like symptoms. Last year, between October and May, there were 28 confirmed cases of influenza. So far this year there have been two cases, said Dr. Rose Lee Bell, chief epidemiologist for the Clark County Health District.

In addition to a drop in confirmed cases, the number of patients turning up at clinics and health centers with flu-like symptoms is also down, Bell said. Data collected at 14 sites shows 1.8 percent of the patients seen had a fever of at least 100 degrees and a cough or sore throat that wasn't explained by another illness, Bell said. That's compared with the national average of 1.9. For the same week last year, the number of patients showing flu-like symptoms was over 3 percent, Bell said.

"Since we started this year's surveillance in October we've been lower every week compared with last year," Bell said this morning. "However, there's still five months left of the flu season and it's impossible to predict what might turn up."

Nevada's flu season usually peaks at the end of December to early January, Bell said.

Flu vaccinations were available earlier this year than in 2000 which may have contributed to the drop in illnesses, Bell said.

Fewer flu cases have been reported nationwide this year, said Dr. Keiji Fukuda of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

For 15 of the last 19 years the nationwide flu season has peaked in January or later, Fukuda said Thursday.

"We're in a wait-and-see mode," Fukuda said. "There are so many variables that affect the timing of influenza activity that it's nearly impossible to come up with a good prediction."

One thing is certain, however -- there are more doses of the flu vaccine available nationwide than ever before. There are 87 million doses this year compared with just 70 million in 2000. Last year's shortage of doses was coupled with distribution difficulties. Many public health clinics ran out of the vaccine and were unable to provide shots to seniors and other members of at-risk groups. At the same time many private pharmacy chains and supermarkets had plenty of doses and were offering shots for sale. The CDC now monitors vaccine manufacturers to make sure orders from hospitals and health clinics are filled first.

There are two other elements that make this flu season different from past years -- travel is at a record low, and anthrax scares have made many people more cautious about possible disease transmission. Fewer people traveling could mean fewer opportunities for flu viruses to spread, Fukuda said. People practicing better hygiene isn't likely to have a significant impact on the overall number of flu cases, he said.

"The major way these viruses are transmitted are through the air, " Fukuda said . "Washing your hands is always a good idea, but it isn't going to keep someone else from coughing or sneezing near you."

Peggy Maxwell, visiting Las Vegas from Utah, said Thursday she was motivated to get a flu shot for the first time ever because of anthrax fears.

"With everything going on, it just makes you more aware," Maxwell said. "You can't be too careful."

Some health officials had been encouraging people to get vaccinated in order to reduce the chances that flu symptoms would be confused with anthrax. The CDC recommends people get flu shots to prevent the flu, which is a much more immediate risk than anthrax, Fukuda said. There have been four anthrax-related deaths this year. More than 20,000 people die each year of the flu, the CDC reports.