Columnist Jon Ralston: Political predictions for 2002

Friday, Dec. 28, 2001 | 3:19 a.m.

This year the task paradoxically is more difficult and yet more simple than ever. The horrific events of Sept. 11 and the ensuing uncertainty make pronouncements about anything, perhaps especially politics, riskier. But in the unique Nevada political world, where anointments are routine and the Democrats have a farm team without any animals, some outcomes seem preordained.

So as we approach 2002, an election year with all the constitutional officers, a new congressional district, two-thirds of the Legislature and two open Southern Nevada law enforcement jobs on the ballot, here is one man's shaky forecast (all rights reserved, subject to adjustment as conditions change):

Federal

1. Rep. Shelley Berkley will fend off a feisty challenge from City Councilwoman Lynette Boggs McDonald to win a third term in Congress. Rumbles will immediately begin that she may challenge John Ensign for the Senate in '06.

2. State Sen. Jon Porter, benefiting from a slightly GOP-leaning district and a Republican year in Nevada, including the presence of the anti-gay Question 2, will narrowly defeat Clark County Commission Chairman Dario Herrera in the race for the new congressional district.

3. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham will designate Yucca Mountain as just peachy keen for a nuclear waste dump. President Bush will agree. Ensign will distance himself from the administration, the Democrats will seek partisan advantage while the state suffers legal setbacks in the dump fight and Gov. Kenny Guinn's veto looks to be easily overridden in Congress. Harry Ensign will wonder whether it's time to make a deal.

State

1. The Republicans will not lose any of the constitutional offices, despite late pushes by the Democrats to recruit candidates. The GOP will then have the jump on the 2006 governor's race with Attorney General Brian Sandoval and Secretary of State Dean Heller both looking to move to that nice house on Carson Street.

2. The Legislature will remain almost unchanged. The Republicans will retain control of the state Senate by 12-9, despite spirited attempts by the Democrats. Bill Raggio will return for one more go as majority leader, although there will be rumblings that Mark James wants to wrest the scepter from him. In the Assembly, the Republicans will muster a much better recruiting effort than in 2000, but still will lose ground to the Democrats, who will gain a seat and get to the magical number of 28, which means they will have two-thirds of the votes needed to pass a tax increase or override the governor.

3. That state tax panel will not reach consensus on a way to broaden the tax base, leaving the job in the hands of the brave souls who inhabit Carson City every biennium. It will become clear that one solution that has lots of support is shifting revenue from local governments to the state.

Local

1. The Clark County Commission will be virtually undisturbed by the events of Campaign '02. Erin Kenny and Myrna Williams will win re-election, although Kenny will flirt with lieutenant governor (caveat: she will run for that post if Lorraine Hunt surprises me and decides not to seek re-election). Rory Reid will fill Dario Herrera's seat without any notable opposition but will raise $1 million, just in case.

2. Las Vegas City Councilman Michael Mack will be found guilty of ethics violations, unless the tribunal drinks heavily before the meeting. Mack will not be thrown out of office, and Mayor Oscar Goodman will urge him to ride out the storm because he needs his vote to head off the new ruling coalition of Michael McDonald, Lynette Boggs McDonald, Gary Reese and Lawrence Weekly.

3. There will be a new Regional Transportation Commission bond question to pay for road improvements -- the first omnibus package since 1990. Also, Bill Young will become the new sheriff and David Roger will nudge out Mike Davidson to become the next district attorney.

Fessing up and eating crow: A quick scorecard on the forecast I made a year ago. First, the boasting: I correctly foretold of all four City Council members being re-elected, that Thom Reilly would replace Dale Askew as Clark County manager, that Mayor Oscar Goodman would not run against Gov. Kenny Guinn and that the governor would not address the tax structure during the Legislature.

Now for swallowing that crow: I didn't think Councilman Michael McDonald would survive the year, I thought Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus would announce her retirement to run for something else, I predicted an expanded Legislature (well it did until there was a special session, which, alas, I also said would not occur) and I said with certainty that the NCAA bill and a Yucca Mountain law would pass this year. Like any good sports team that's had a mixed bag of a season, we in the pundit class are always happy to say: Wait until next year.