Columnist Dean Juipe: NFL bettors can’t resist win totals

Dean Juipe

Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2001 | 10:40 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or 259-4084.

It's a perennial favorite and the most enticing of any of the futures bets offered by sports books in Nevada casinos.

The subject: National Football League regular-season victory totals. The book puts up a number by every team, allowing the bettor to agree or disagree and wager accordingly.

For instance, the 11 next to the St. Louis Rams (at the Imperial Palace, among others) gives the bettor the choice of taking the over (at a minus 140) or the under (at a plus 110). If you have a crystal ball, or the intuition, you can place a bet that has the peripheral value of a lengthy, virtually season-long shelf life.

As propositions go, these are popular and appeal to both tourists and wise guys alike.

The numbers for the coming season are up now and one jumped out at me not because I think the New England Patriots are a lock to win more than 6 1/2 games -- as they're currently listed -- but because they're very apt to start the season 2-0.

And at 2-0 they need only go 5-9 the rest of the way to exceed that 6 1/2 total.

The Patriots are not a particularly good team and they were a mere 5-11 in 2000 with the league's 20th ranked defense and 22nd ranked offense. But they opened the 2001 preseason with wins over the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers before a flat 20-3 loss to Tampa Bay over the weekend.

Based on media reports from the New England area, the Patriots' offensive line is killing them and causing quarterback Drew Bledsoe -- who was sacked an ungodly 48 times last season -- a good deal of anguish. As unpredictable as he is on his good days, he doesn't need this added concern.

The Pats also play in a tough division and won't be helped by a schedule that includes games with St. Louis (14-2 last year), New Orleans (13-3) and Denver (13-3) outside their conference. They have also lost linebacker Andy Katzenmoyer for the year and the comeback of RB Robert Edwards from injury was curtailed when he was released last week.

With a dissatisfied Terry Glenn at wide receiver and a running game that was topped by Kevin Faulk's lowly 570 yards in 2000, New England will struggle for wins and can ill afford an injury to Bledsoe with only Damon Huard and Michael Bishop waiting in the wings.

But they do open with lightweights Cincinnati and Carolina and at 2-0 and atop the AFC East they will look -- at least for that one week in mid-September -- like a good bet to win seven games. Hence the temptation to take the over, although a 6-10 finish looks equally feasible when you go through the remainder of their schedule.

Be forewarned, too, that last year at this time the team that got the attention in this space was the Atlanta Falcons, as professional bettor Lem Banker not only liked their chances to exceed seven wins but saw them as a good "sleeper" bet at 40-1 to win the Super Bowl. They finished 4-12.

Banker said Monday that Baltimore and Denver are the two teams that have impressed him the most thus far, with one week remaining in the preseason.

He was eying the over-under totals as we spoke, hoping, as we all do, for a brush with clairvoyance that he could trust with a dollar or two.