Columnist Dean Juipe: Stats say take Rebels at Arkansas

Dean Juipe

Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2001 | 11:35 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or 259-4084.

The game is not up on the board yet at most places around town, but it will be soon.

And when it happens, UNLV will be about a 3-point underdog for its football season opener with Arkansas Aug. 30 in Little Rock.

This year, for the first time, it's legal in Nevada to bet on (or against) the Rebels (and Nevada-Reno). Rest assured, people are going to do it for novelty reasons if nothing else.

As a result, the trends and patterns of UNLV's recent past will come into play. And bettors will have to factor these elements into their wagering.

For instance, strictly from a statistical, past-performance perspective we should all run out and take the three points the Rebels will be getting in the game with the Razorbacks.

Forget that UNLV defeated Arkansas 31-14 in last year's Las Vegas Bowl, and forget the fact the Rebels have more returning lettermen (52 to Arkansas' 49) and only one fewer returning starter (14 to Arkansas' 15).

Forget, too, that Arkansas was a mere 30-1 at the Paris Las Vegas sports book Monday to win the Southeastern Conference championship this season, which would indicate the Hogs aren't expected to be much more formidable than they were in 2000 when they were banged up and finished 6-6 overall.

No, there are more important sets of numbers to consider in siding with the Rebels ... five sets, of five that are applicable, in fact.

Foremost: UNLV is 17-9-1 against the spread in its last 27 games as a road underdog.

Also, UNLV is 18-8 against the spread in the last five years in away games played on grass, and War Memorial Stadium has a grass playing surface.

Also, UNLV is 11-8 against the spread in its last 19 games played in August or September.

Also, Arkansas is only 9-19 against the spread in its last 28 games against teams from outside the SEC.

And, as if the previous wasn't enough, teams coached by current UNLV head coach John Robinson are 4-2 against the spread in his last six season openers.

In short, there is every statistical reason to bet on the Rebels and not one to side with Arkansas.

If only it were so simple, of course, because the revenge factor will come into play in the opener, as does the home field to a lesser extent. Each bettor will have to gauge those items as he or she sees fit.

But this ability to bet on UNLV games opens some interesting avenues that we once all but ignored. Particulars such as SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread) records will get a closer look now that the Rebels are fair game in the city's sports books.

Here are a few others worth noting: UNLV was both 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS last season; it was 3-2 as a home favorite; 1-0 as a home underdog; 1-2 as an away favorite; and 3-1 as an away underdog. The Rebels were also 8-4 on grass last season; 0-1 on artificial turf; 6-1 coming off a SU win; and 2-3 coming off a SU loss.

As if that's not enough to digest, there are five-year betting records for the team readily available (through various sources), as are betting numbers pertaining to Robinson's entire career. That's a lot to handle, but if you want the action you should do the homework.

It might actually be a lot of fun.