Columnist Jeff Haney: Bettors make a ‘Point’ to bet Derby favorite

Wednesday, April 25, 2001 | 9:53 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

Any bookmaker who has exposure on star 3-year-old Point Given in his Kentucky Derby future book might want to blame last year's champion, Fusaichi Pegasus, for his predicament.

Although to be honest it's not likely '"Fu-Peg," now enjoying life in the breeding shed, has much sympathy for bookies.

You see, a year ago, the playful colt captured the imagination of racing fans, who pounded "Fu-Peg" in the Kentucky Derby future book and made him the pari-mutuel favorite on race day as well.

The only factor causing any doubt in bettors' minds was the so-called "Derby favorite curse." No Kentucky Derby favorite had won the race since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

That is, until Fusaichi Pegasus blew away the "curse" along with the rest of the field in his 1 1/2-length victory at Churchill Downs last May 6.

Fast forward to this spring. With the dreaded curse eradicated, bettors seem even more eager to pile on the probable Derby favorite, one local racing expert says.

"Every year, there always seems to be a 'public' horse," said Dave Tuley, the Las Vegas correspondent for the Daily Racing Form. "With Fusaichi Pegasus breaking the jinx last year, I think people are not going to be afraid to really jump on the favorite."

That could mean bad news for any bookmakers who are loaded with money on Point Given.

"Point Given is definitely the 'now' horse," Tuley said. "In Las Vegas future book betting, you can lock (your bet) in at a certain price, which could lead to (books') liability on Point Given."

At Bally's hotel-casino, one of several Las Vegas properties that offer fixed-odds future book wagering on the Derby, Point Given has been bet from an opening line of 40-1 to a current price of 9-5.

Bettors wagering into the Churchill Downs pari-mutuel future book, which is offered at the host track and other outlets around the country, also like Point Given. In the third and final pari-mutuel future book, which closed April 8, Point Given was a 2-1 choice.

The Bob Baffert-trained colt also commanded respect in the first two rounds of future betting at Churchill, closing at 7-1 in February and 6-1 in March.

The 9-5 price at Bally's represents the shortest odds on the board, along with another 3-year-old trained by Baffert, the lightly raced Wood Memorial winner Congaree.

While Point Given backers are betting that Baffert is prepping the Santa Anita Derby champ specifically for Kentucky Derby day, Congaree supporters are trying to buck a trend that says such inexperienced horses rarely take home the roses.

"Historical trends are always a factor -- but Bob Baffert is a genius," Tuley said. "Obviously he has had a strategy in mind all along. Point Given is his star pupil, but he's been bringing along Congaree too, just at a different pace.

"The goal of a trainer is to lead them up to the Derby and have them peak on that day, but with any individual 3-year-old, you never know when he's going to peak."

Other 3-year-olds attracting attention in the Bally's future book (with current prices) are Blue Grass winner Millennium Wind (5-1), Florida Derby champ Monarchos (5-1) and Arkansas Derby winner Balto Star (7-1).

In the final round of futures betting at Churchill Downs, Millennium Wind closed at 22-1, Congaree 18-1 and Balto Star 15-1 -- although that was a week before each of those horses won a key Derby prep race.

Now, they all must be considered real threats to challenge the favorite and start a new "curse."

"I think (the Derby) is wide-open, but not in a bad sense in that there's no one out there," said Tuley. "It's looking like a very competitive field, from top to bottom."

Anyone who makes $20 worth of baseball bets at the Stardust can enter the contest, in which entrants predict the winner of each game on Saturday's card. Whoever gets the most games correct wins the $1,000 prize. The one-entry-per-customer rule is in effect.

A 12-3 record has been good enough to take down the prize each of the first several weeks.

Roberts made odds on 19 drivers plus a field bet. Sam Hornish is favored at 4-1, followed by Buddy Lazier (5-1), Michael Andretti (6-1), Eliseo Salazar (8-1), Helio Castro-Neves (8-1) and Greg Ray (8-1). The early wagering closes May 20, "Bump Day" at Indy. Betting is available at all Station properties.

Hasim Rahman, who went on to score an upset with a stirring fifth-round knockout, was a plus 1500 underdog at four major offshore sports books heading into the bout. Favored Lennox Lewis was listed at minus 1250 at two other offshore establishments. A bettor could place, say, $1250 on Lewis and $85 on Rahman to lock in a profit of either $15 or $25, depending on the outcome.

"Those are not big figures, but they do represent an edge, which is what every bettor, we assume, is looking for," according to Jay.

In other words, only in the movies do successful gamblers spend their days plotting, scheming and dreaming about making that "one big score."

Here in the real world, for serious bettors, it's all about accumulating, day in and day out, a whole bunch of small but discernible edges.