Columnist Dean Juipe: Even at 1-3, Rebels may finish 7-5

Dean Juipe

Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2000 | 9:32 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or 259-4084.

UNLV football fans shouldn't be too disheartened.

Yes, the Rebels lost a game last Saturday at Brigham Young that they could have won, and, yes, they will almost certainly lose Saturday's game at Sam Boyd Stadium with Air Force.

They may also lose two weeks from now at Colorado State.

But if you look at the Mountain West Conference as a whole, UNLV may be the only one of the eight members that can clearly state and believe its program is on the rise. The league, you see, is in something of a shambles and even its most stable programs are no longer head and shoulders above the once-downtrodden Rebels.

They're at least upwardly mobile.

Wyoming, New Mexico, San Diego State and Utah are not.

And BYU, if its current team accurately reflects its stature, may be slipping as well. Add in the fact that even Air Force, which has looked strong through the early portion of the schedule, was a mere 2-5 in MWC play and 6-5 overall last year, and UNLV can justifiably believe it is within striking distance of being a bowl contender.

That's more than the majority of the teams in the league can say.

There's such a thing as being too optimistic, particularly with UNLV apt to be sitting 3-5 after eight games, but it has already shown enough to believe it could close the season with four victories and finish 7-5. That would easily exceed preseason expectations.

Of course the Rebels could lose the rest and finish 1-11. If so, it'll take John Robinson at his charismatic best to find a silver lining.

But there's a better chance than not that the Rebels will withstand this tough portion of their schedule and survive the every-other-week bludgeoning they may take with Air Force, CSU and nonconference power Mississippi still to play before November.

Those three games aside, UNLV could and maybe should win the rest.

Here's why: Nevada-Reno, its win last Saturday over Wyoming notwithstanding, is down and is ripe for the picking; Wyoming, need we say any more, is so disheveled it lost to Reno and is clearly on the skids; Utah, despite lofty expectations and nine wins a year ago, is 0-4 against tough competition and likely drooling at the prospect of a win with Utah State up this week; New Mexico is 1-3 despite scheduling what it thought were patsies; San Diego State is 0-4 and wasn't expecting much; and Hawaii, a nonleague opponent to close the season, is beset by turmoil and its players are refusing to talk to the media.

If the Rebels stay healthy, improve and capitalize, they could finish in the upper half of a league that presently isn't strong enough to place a team in the national top-25 rankings. As distinctions go maybe that isn't an especially admirable one, yet UNLV would take it and call the season an unqualified success. It's all relative, right?

Of course the Rebels could have taken a shortcut to the top had they beaten BYU and they could chop a few miles off the journey by upsetting Air Force, yet a victory against the former wasn't unexpected and neither is one against the latter. First things being first, they need a season on the plus side of .500.

This might very well be it, even if they're apt to be 1-3 after Air Force gets done with them.