Incumbency given edge over issues in November

Thursday, Oct. 19, 2000 | 10:24 a.m.

Do not be surprised if most Nevada political races this fall are decided on factors such as incumbency, party affiliation and name recognition rather than issues.

With the nation's attention focused on the presidential battle, many ballot contests in the Nov. 7 general election will be swept under the rug. Barring last-minute revelations such as those alleged in inflammatory mailers, Nevada political observers say few incumbents are at risk of losing their seats.

In addition to electing a new White House occupant, the stakes in this election include whether Republicans can maintain control of Congress and whether the Democrats can retake the Nevada Senate to go along with their overwhelming Assembly majority.

Most publicized races

The three most publicized races in Southern Nevada are the U.S. Senate contest between Republican former Rep. John Ensign and Democratic attorney Ed Bernstein; the 1st Congressional District face-off involving Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., and state Sen. Jon Porter, R-Henderson; and the Clark County Commission District C battle pitting Democratic Clark County School Board member Lois Tarkanian against Republican businessman Chip Maxfield.

The issues they are addressing range from prescription drug coverage for Medicare recipients to high-level nuclear waste disposal.

Ryan Erwin, executive director of the Nevada Republican Party, said GOP candidates have become stronger on education issues, citing as an example Gov. Kenny Guinn's scholarship program to get more Nevada high school graduates into college.

"On nuclear waste Democrats have turned it into a partisan issue, but we have taken the high road," Erwin said. "This is an issue where we need to fight together. It's Nevada versus 30 other states."

From the perspective of Nevada State Democratic Party Chairman Rory Reid, Democrats are not only stronger in the fight against proposed nuclear waste shipments to Nevada but in a variety of other areas.

"Democratic priorities are to ensure that Social Security and Medicare remain solvent, invest in education, pass a patient's bill of rights to address health maintenance organization abuses, provide middle class tax relief and pay down the debt."

But professor Ted Jelen, chairman of UNLV's political science department, and Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, said the state's top races could turn on intangibles that have little to do with issues.

"Berkley has used her incumbency fairly effectively in getting news coverage," Jelen said of the favorite. "I would say there's really no major issue that Porter can ride."

Both professors agreed that while Bernstein has closed the gap in his race, Ensign remains the favorite and will be hard to defeat.

"Most voting is still done by party label and name recognition," Herzik said. "Ensign is better known and has more positives. Bernstein still has huge negatives. There are also a lot of Democrats in this state who are closet Republicans. They are conservative Democrats so Bernstein's liberalism doesn't really help him.

"He'll get killed in the rural areas, and he'll lose up north worse than Sen. Harry Reid did (against Ensign in 1998). I also don't think down south that labor will be as strong for him as they were for Reid."

In the Maxfield-Tarkanian race, where no major issues have emerged, Jelen said voters have a choice between a "giant killer" and a candidate with a famous last name.

Maxfield is the giant killer, having dispatched incumbent Commissioner Lance Malone in September's GOP primary. Tarkanian is the wife of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, who guided his team to the NCAA crown in 1990 and remains a local folk hero.

Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., who represents the 2nd Congressional District, is considered a lock to win re-election and in fact has one of the safest seats in the country. That district covers all of the state except the portions of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson represented by Berkley.

"It's an overwhelming Republican district," Herzik said. "Gibbons has done a good job serving the district and he's a good campaigner. Barring some strange reapportionment, Gibbons will have a safe seat for a long time."

Legislative majorities

Herzik, who follows the Nevada Legislature, said he does not expect the 27-14 Democratic majority in the Assembly and 12-9 GOP majority in the Senate to change much. He said all of the Senate incumbents from both parties are favored to win re-election, and that only three or four incumbent assemblymen face stiff contests.

The most closely watched legislative race in Southern Nevada is for Assembly District 15, where incumbent freshman Democrat Kathy McClain faces former GOP Assemblyman Jack Close for a two-year term.

"In any given election a random (upset) loss often occurs, but going into it all the incumbents should be favorites," Herzik said.

As an example the three incumbent county commissioners in the general election, Bruce Woodbury in District A, Mary Kincaid in District B and Yvonne Atkinson Gates in District D, are all heavily favored to win re-election.

Voters will also get their say on ballot initiatives, such as whether to remove cavity-preventing fluoride from the county's drinking water, and whether to amend the Nevada Constitution to ban same-sex marriages and legalize marijuana for medicinal purposes. But these issues have not generated much discussion in local political circles.

Jelen said he expects the marijuana initiative, first approved by voters two years ago, to pass again and become law. But he said he was somewhat surprised that polls have shown Nevadans opposed to same-sex marriages, particularly in a state where the religious right is relatively weak politically.