Columnist Jeff Haney: Tracking college overachievers — and flops

Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2000 | 1:29 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

In his Logical Approach newsletter last week, Andy Iskoe revealed the 20 college football teams that have shown the greatest improvements since the start of the season -- and the 20 that have shown the greatest declines.

Iskoe isn't trying to compete with the weekly coaches' poll, or with news organizations who release their own "Top 25" polls.

He's simply trying to help people make money at the betting windows.

"Even though the season is more than halfway over for many teams, the linesmaker has not entirely adjusted to how some of these teams are performing," said Iskoe, a Las Vegas author and handicapper. "From a handicapping standpoint, that's the type of situation you want to look for."

After this past weekend's college action, Iskoe updated both sets of rankings and agreed to share the results with the Sun.

Here are the five teams that have shown the most dramatic improvements, according to Iskoe's power ratings:

Collectively those five teams have posted a 22-11 record straight up, and are 24-7 against the point spread (a healthy 77 percent). Four of the five have only one loss against the spread.

Coincidentally, two of the top five met Saturday when Texas-El Paso handed San Jose State its first point-spread loss of the season. UTEP, a 3-point underdog, pulled a 47-30 upset.

San Jose State, just 4-3 straight up, is now 6-1 against the spread.

"A team like San Jose State is No. 1 not because they have an outstanding win-loss record, which they do not," Iskoe said. "Their No. 1 ranking means they have pulled some upsets and have been more competitive in other games than they were expected to be."

The biggest surprise among the top five? Iskoe leans toward South Carolina.

"Certainly no one expected them to go 0-11 again," he said. "But I don't know if many people expected them to be 6-1 straight up and 6-1 against the spread either."

Iskoe has also been impressed by Northwestern, which was No. 3 last week and just missed the top 5 this week after failing to cover in a 41-28 loss to Purdue. The Wildcats are 5-2 straight up and against the number.

Although betting on UNLV games is not permitted in Nevada, the Rebels have rewarded gamblers backing them in offshore books by going 5-1 against the spread. Their only non-cover came in the season opener at Iowa State when they lost 37-22 as 12-point underdogs.

Here are the five teams that have shown the most dramatic declines since the start of the season, according to Iskoe:

Those teams have gone a collective 6-27 straight up, and a money-burning 8-20-2 against the point spread.

"If they're underachieving, it figures you'd be losing money by betting those teams," Iskoe said.

Stanford, 2-4 straight up, has the best point-spread record of that lowly bunch at 3-3. The Cardinal's stock has fallen as it has amassed a grand total of 23 points in its last three games (although it did manage to cover the spread in an Oct. 7 loss at Notre Dame).

The No. 6 and No. 7 teams on the list of decliners -- Penn State and Wisconsin -- are perhaps the most stunning, Iskoe said.

"I'd say Wisconsin might be the biggest surprise because of what was expected of them," Iskoe said of the Badgers (4-3 straight up, 2-5 against the spread). "A lot of people expected them to be a top-5 team this year."

Iskoe said he makes changes in his power ratings based on a team's actual performance versus its predicted performance. He suspects, however, doing the same exercise using, for example, the Gold Sheet's power ratings would yield similar results.

When handicapping a college football card, Iskoe uses both of his "top 20s" to pinpoint favorable betting situations.

"I look to play on teams among the top 20 most improved, especially as underdogs, especially against teams that are not on the improved list, and especially against teams that are on the other list," Iskoe said.

"Obviously the best situation is playing on an improved team as an underdog against a declining team."

Iskoe's power ratings, along with plenty of other statistics and articles, can be found at www.thelogicalapproach.com.

Hensgen (www.thegame-nfl.com) lost with the Rams laying 17 1/2 points, and hit with the Colts, 49ers, Eagles and Vikings. ...

In the $15,000 Don Best tournament, veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro went 6-1 to beat Phil Steele of Cleveland-based Northcoast Sports (2-5). This week's pairing pits Ken White of Nevada Sports Consultants against Las Vegas handicapper Tim Trushel.

It airs 4 p.m. Thursday on KRLV 1340-AM. ...

White is coming off a 4-2-1 weekend in the Stardust invitational, which was good enough to beat Canadian Michael Pomer (2-4-1).

At 9 p.m. Friday in the Stardust race and sports book, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman faces off against Vaccaro.