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November 10, 2009

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Columnist Jeff Haney: This season’s White Sox are no Rams

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2000 | 10:25 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com

At the beginning of the baseball season, the odds on the Chicago White Sox to win the World Series were 75-1 in most Las Vegas sports books.

This week, as one of eight teams playing in baseball's postseason, the Pale Hose are approximately a 5-1 shot to win the Series.

Given the severity of that line move, you might think local books are badly exposed on the White Sox, primed to take a big hit if Chicago wins it all.

But that's not quite the case, at least at a couple of major Strip properties.

Thanks to some quick thinking behind the betting counter, odds on the White Sox were adjusted rapidly when it became clear the team was for real.

"We lowered the odds (on Chicago to win the Series) right away, as soon as they got off to a hot start," said Chuck Cunningham, sports book supervisor at the Imperial Palace. "Right now we're solid across the board with all the playoff teams."

Heading into Tuesday's division playoff openers, the White Sox were 7-1 to win the World Series, after the favored Yankees (5-2) and Braves (4-1), and followed by the Giants (7-1), Mets (8-1), Athletics (8-1), Mariners (10-1) and Cardinals (10-1).

"We did lose some money on the White Sox in the division futures (when Chicago outlasted the Cleveland Indians)," Cunningham said. In that AL Central race, the Indians' opening odds were so low bettors were forced to look elsewhere for value.

At the Stardust hotel-casino, sports book director Joe Lupo said his property is rooting against the White Sox, although it's not a life-or-death situation.

"It wouldn't be a catastrophe if they came in -- we moved (the odds) down pretty quickly," Lupo said. "But we are definitely exposed more on the White Sox than on any other team."

The Stardust opened the White Sox at 75-1 to win the Series and had them listed at 6-1 Tuesday.

"It's not like the Rams all over again," said Lupo. St. Louis opened at upwards of 200-1 a year ago and caused a record number of Maalox moments for sports books when they went on to win the Super Bowl.

And no matter who makes it, this year's Fall Classic won't be a replay of the 1991 World Series, perhaps the most infamous in recent memory among oddsmakers.

That year, the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves became the first two teams in baseball history to go from last place to the World Series in one season. Coming off dismal 1990 seasons, the odds on both teams were about as long -- or longer -- as those on the White Sox this year.

"Now that," Lupo said, "was a lose-lose situation."

* DIVISION SERIES: Bettors at the Stardust were taking shots on the underdog Cardinals in their opening-round series against the Braves, in which Atlanta was nearly a 2-1 favorite.

At the IP, customers were sticking with the favored Braves, who opened at minus 180 to take the series and went as high as minus 220.

Action was balanced on the American League side.

"Everything's up in the air in the AL," Lupo said. "The Yankees are still favored but they've been playing so horribly the last few weeks, which causes bettors to take a second look at the A's, Mariners and White Sox. It makes for good competition."

The sports books at the MGM and Mirage properties list Tapia as a minus 175 favorite and Ayala at plus 155.

The Stardust has Tapia minus 170, Ayala plus 150.

The Hilton lists Tapia minus 160, Ayala plus 120.

In their first meeting, Ayala won a majority decision in a thriller as an underdog of approximately plus 350.

Hensgen, who's sharing some of his thoughts and predictions with the Sun as he competes for the contest's $114,000 prize, went an unblemished 5-for-5 in this column two weeks ago and followed that with a 3-2 effort this past Sunday.

He was still fine-tuning this week's picks Tuesday night; however, fans can check out his website at www.thegame-nfl.com and follow his progress at the Hilton under the alias "The Game."

"One thing I noticed from the statistical side -- last week I took San Diego plus 17 1/2 and it looked worth it against the Rams," said Hensgen, who uses computer databases extensively in his analysis. "There was little doubt who'd win but under conventional standards, a team with a couple touchdown lead would go into prevent and 'allow' the opposition (to get) closer.

"The Rams, it appears, are uncoventional -- don't fit conventional models -- and when on offense, merely score like in Arena (League) football. Naturally, this skews the figures."

In the Stardust invitational, Cathy Creevy of Larry Adelman's SportsFax went 2-5, edging handicapper Russ Culver (1-6). At 9 p.m. Friday, blackjack expert Stanford Wong makes a rare public appearance when he squares off against radio personality Scott Ferrall.

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