Columnist Dean Juipe: Forget 7-5, Rebels can consider 8-4

Dean Juipe

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2000 | 10:20 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or 259-4084.

What seemed wildly optimistic only a week ago is, today, sadly out of date and in need of revision.

The UNLV football team going 7-5 as predicted here last week?

Hah. Given the Rebels' highly unexpected 34-13 win over Air Force last Saturday, 7-5 might be something of a letdown in spite of the team's current and modest record of 2-2 heading into this weekend's game with Nevada-Reno at Sam Boyd Stadium.

The update: 8-4 is within UNLV's sights. And you know what 8-4 means?

A bowl bid.

For a program that has brought up the rear of three leagues in the past decade and has the paddle marks to prove it, the Rebels are poised to make 2000 the Year of the Big Stride. They could be moving off Desolation Boulevard.

They could even contend for the Mountain West title and an automatic spot in the Liberty Bowl.

They'll beat Reno, not only because they're 22-point favorites but because the Wolf Pack bears no resemblance to its score-and-do-it-quickly predecessors. The shoe has switched to the other foot in this in-state rivalry and the team that once did the pummeling is about to be pummeled.

Reno's football fortunes have been slipping the last couple of years and this season the Wolves are 1-3 and might be ready to Pack it in. UNR is permitting its opponents an average of 37 points per game and this once-formidable offensive program is no longer capable of retaliating to that degree.

Mark it down as a win for UNLV, maybe even one that will at least partially compensate for its having lost 10 of the previous 11 games to its sister school.

But beyond the likely victory over Reno and the recent one over Air Force, UNLV has been further buoyed by the continued sluggish play of its conference cohorts. When the bell rang last week for the Mountain West to stand up and be counted, most of its members were at recess.

Not to discount Utah too harshly in spite of its 1-4 record, but the only league game left on the Rebels' schedule that may be a handful is Colorado State. And while CSU is 3-1, its 13-10 loss to Arizona State showed a certain vulnerability.

Let's say the Rebels lose that game, plus a nonconference game with 3-1 Mississippi that is yet to come. But they could win the others, although Utah and New Mexico will provide decent challenges; Wyoming, San Diego State and Hawaii may not.

If it goes as outlined, UNLV comes in at 8-4 and those few bowl reps who have at-large berths to offer will come knocking. Foremost among them will be the Las Vegas Bowl.

You remember the Las Vegas Bowl. It's an annual game that is typically played in chilly weather before mostly empty grandstands and usually features only marginally interesting teams.

It is a bowl game that perennially appears to be in trouble or on its last leg.

Given the Rebels' showing of late, organizers of the Las Vegas Bowl are likely salivating and/or praying for John Robinson's team to continue its success. It was an outlandish thought only a month ago, but the Rebels could be the local bowl's savior.

Perhaps it's a frivolous notion, one based on a house of cards. But see what a mere two wins can do?

You see where optimism gets you?