Panel gives prediction on state’s expected revenues

Brendan Riley

Thursday, Nov. 30, 2000 | 4:59 a.m.

CARSON CITY - Nevada's Economic Forum estimated Thursday that the state can expect $3.74 billion in gambling, sales and other taxes in the coming two fiscal years.

The panel's projection, which will get a final update next spring, must be followed by lawmakers when they complete work on a two-year state budget as their 2001 session winds down in late May.

If the forum's estimate pans out, the state's revenue will be about 17 percent higher than the figure that the 1999 Legislature had used in building the budget for the current two-year cycle, which will end June 30.

The panel, chaired by Leo Seevers, relied on reports from economists and budget experts for Gov. Kenny Guinn's administration, the Legislature, various state agencies and an outside economist.

The agencies included the state Budget Office, Legislative Counsel Bureau, Gaming Control Board and state Taxation Department. Also weighing in was WEFA Inc., a forecasting company used by the state and LCB.

Their latest estimates differed only slightly from preliminary figures presented last month to the forum.

Picking and choosing Thursday from the various tax-by-tax income projections, forum members assumed sales tax growth of 5.5 percent to 6 percent, and casino percentage fee growth between 4 and 5 percent in the coming budget period.

Casino-related taxes combined with sales taxes account for three-quarters of all revenues needed to run state government.

The $3.74 billion revenue estimate adopted by the Economic Forum is good news for Gov. Guinn, who in a July budget briefing had estimated his spending plans would total $3.7 billion.

"We're certainly not displeased with the numbers," said Guinn press secretary Jack finn. "But we've got to take these projections, get with our analysts and with the legislative leadership, and get set to present our budget in the governor's Jan. 22 State of the State address."

The forum's figures also are welcome news for the State of Nevada Employees Association, whose leaders want the Legislature to increase pay for state employees by 5 percent next July and 3 percent in July 2002. The cost of the increases would be $78 million.

Of the $3.7 billion in spending projected earlier by Guinn, about $3.25 billion would fund existing operations of state government. Another $395 million would be needed to fund increases in public school enrollments, the university system, Medicaid recipients and prison inmate growth.

The governor had figured on another $95 million, including $30 million expected to be saved from agency operations through his "fundamental budget review" process, for new initiatives such as salary and benefit hikes for state employees.

Perry Comeaux, Guinn's budget chief, said the forum's latest estimate appears to add another $40 million or so to the new-initiative funds.