Gates, experts agree: Internet still in infancy

Monday, Nov. 13, 2000 | 11:07 a.m.

Computer industry guru Bill Gates enjoyed rock-star status as he shared his vision of the next generation of the Internet in the kickoff of Comdex 2000 Sunday night.

Gates, chief software architect and chairman of Microsoft Corp., spoke at the MGM Grand Garden as more than 12,000 people jammed into the arena to hear a keynote address from the man widely regarded as the most influential in the industry.

This morning, those crowds packed trade show floors at the Las Vegas Convention Center, the Las Vegas Hilton and the Sands Expo Center for the largest annual gathering hosted by the city. About 200,000 people have preregistered for the five-day computer exposition, now in its 22nd year.

More than 2,100 exhibitors -- a handful of them representing Las Vegas companies -- are showing a wide variety of computer products on more than 1 million square feet of trade show space.

Because Comdex draws most of industry's biggest players, it has the drawing power to deliver heavyweight speakers. Gates is the biggest draw of them all. This year's presentation was scheduled in the MGM Grand Garden so that more people could see it.

But, as in previous years, organizers had to set up satellite venues with closed-circuit TV to handle the overflow crowd. Organizers had no estimates on how many people saw Gates' address, but an estimated 12,000 tickets were distributed for arena seating. In previous years, the crowd for Gates has been estimated at 20,000, including those in the overflow rooms.

Gates used the same formula in his address that he has used with success in previous Las Vegas keynote speeches for Comdex and the Winter Consumer Electronics Show, discussing what changes are ahead, then letting other Microsoft employees and customers give demonstrations to illustrate the point.

Sunday night, Gates explained how the further development of XML software standards will change the way the Internet is used.

"Ninety-nine percent of the great Internet applications have yet to be written," Gates said. "Three years from now, all of us will use Internet services that we take for granted."

The widespread use of those standards will pave the way for the development of other new products -- some of which Gates' staff demonstrated.

The demonstration that received the most favorable reaction from the crowd was a Tablet PC, an inch-thick portable computer unit that enables users to write notes with a stylus in longhand and manipulate the text with word-processing commands.

But while the Comdex crowd marveled at the technology, a California-based computer expert was skeptical that the Tablet PC would find a widespread market.

Tom Murphy, vice president of product development for infoUSA.com, an Internet company that specializes in business-to-business computer applications, said while the device represents a step forward technologically, he's not sure there will be a huge demand for it.

"There was a lot of talk about everybody walking around with a wireless PDA (personal data assistant) in their pockets, but that hasn't happened yet," said Murphy, who also wrote "Web Rules: How the Internet is Changing the way Consumers Make Choices."

"The Palm Pilot makes sense for some people who need that, but a very small minority of society uses them regularly. Maybe executives who need to track their schedules or stockbrokers who need to watch the market. I think the same may be true of the tablet.

"You may see some use in package delivery, the UPS and FedEx types of business, or possibly a doctor making his rounds use such a device. But it's hard to beat a pencil and a piece of paper for doing the same things. Sometimes, it's the simple things that are our most powerful tools."

But Murphy was in agreement that XML is a key that will open many doors in the Internet universe.

"When Gates says 99 percent of the programs have yet to be written, I think he's being very conservative," Murphy said.

Murphy said today's Internet has developed to the same level the radio industry was in 1915 and television in 1945.

"We're still 10 to 15 years away from realizing the real power of the Internet," Murphy said. "(The Internet) was created in 1989 and popularized in the mid-1990s, but it's going to take a little more time before the full potential is realized."

Murphy said Gates' vision for XML is an important step in the development.

XML, short for "extensible markup language," is important because the standard will make it easier to transfer content. Just as HTML, or "hypertext markup language" helped Internet users leap from one page to another through links, XML will enable an easier transfer of sound and video.

Gates also introduced David Lauren, son of American clothing designer Ralph Lauren, to demonstrate Polo.com, an interactive Internet site that uses Microsoft technology to sell clothing, accessories and fragrances.

Although Gates and his company have been in a high-profile antitrust battle with the U.S. Justice Department in the past year, Gates made no references in his speech to the federal court decision to break up the company.

Most of the seven other keynote speakers have Internet themes planned for their presentations. Today's lineup includes Carly Fiorina, chief executive of Hewlett-Packard; Michael Dell, chairman and chief executive officer of Dell Computer Corp.; and Larry Ellison, chairman and chief executive officer of Oracle Corp.

In somewhat of a departure for Comdex, one keynote speaker this year isn't from the high-tech industry. Ken Enders, vice president of marketing for the Mercedes Corp., will address the potential growth of mobile computing. The company has set up a test track in one of the Las Vegas Convention Center parking lots to demonstrate a computerized car.

The segment that has generated the most industry buzz for this year's show is wireless computing and several booths are dedicated to devices that link computers and their users without cables.

Comdex organizers say the trade show floor is better organized this year with groupings of technology placed together to benefit buyers and sellers.

This year's show also will have special attention on encouraging women in the industry. While show organizers say women comprise 47 percent of the work force in the United States, only 28 percent of the information technology jobs are held by women. A reception and awards presentation for women in technology is planned tonight at the Comdex-GirlGeeks Forum.

A support organization sponsors an Internet site, girlgeeks.com, to identify issues relevant to women in the industry and to foster recruitment of women in high-tech jobs.